UFC 314 Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes Predictions, Picks & Odds

Nikita Krylov returns to the octagon after a two-year break to face off against the resurgent Dominick Reyes in our featured undercard attraction on the UFC 314 undercard. When these two light heavyweights face off, don’t expect them to leave it up to the judges.

UFC odds favor Krylov at -190, and Reyes is a +155 underdog. Here are my best Krylov vs. Reyes predictions and free betting picks from Kaseya Center in Miami.

Krylov vs Reyes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Krylov moneyline (-170 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight will not go the distance (-210 at BET99)

Fight analysis
For a long time, it looked like Dominick Reyes was a spent force after narrowly losing to Jon Jones and then going on a brutal losing streak. 

When it seemed like it was just a matter of time before he'd be cut from the promotion, Reyes roared back to relevancy with back-to-back knockout wins over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith. Now, he's in a prime position to upset Nikita Krylov and make it three straight. While Nikita Krylov is favored and is bringing more to the table than Reyes' previous two opponents, he hasn’t fought in two years and is facing an opponent whose confidence may be at its highest in years.

There are still plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Reyes’ run. Spann is an inconsistent fighter, and Smith appears to be nearing retirement. Still, the matchups seemed to be what Reyes needed to rebuild momentum.

Statistically, Reyes remains a live threat on the feet, landing 5.64 significant strikes per minute at 49% while absorbing 4.86 per minute and posting a 50% strike defense. His 82% takedown defense will be tested by Krylov, but it’s been a cornerstone of his durability even during his slump. His striking has always been clean and composed, with straight punches and crisp leg kicks, and now that he's found a rhythm again, Reyes is looking sharper.

Krylov, meanwhile, has strong finishing credentials with 16 submissions and 12 knockouts on his resume. Before taking time off, he was riding a three-fight win streak, capped by a victory over Ryan Spann. While not the refined striker, he still lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, while absorbing just 2.50 with a lower 40% strike defense.

His grappling is more of a grind, averaging 1.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% accuracy. While he may find Reyes difficult to get down, his ability to push pace and pressure tends to wear on fighters.

What this fight likely comes down to is whether Reyes can fight off an opponent who won’t go away easily and can push a grinding pace. The concern is how well he handles pressure if Krylov drags him into deeper waters, particularly given Reyes' endurance questions and chin issues from previous losses.

Despite Reyes having the edge in technical striking and takedown defense, Krylov’s pressure and finishing ability will be a true test of what Reyes has to offer the division. This is a test I don’t think he’ll pass, and I’m picking Krylov to win.

Best bet analysis
Krylov and Reyes aren’t going to make this a technical bout, and these two tend to throw caution to the wind to land their best shots. Either Krylov will catch Reyes after he starts to wilt under his pressure or Reyes somehow lands a big counter shot that puts Krylov in a bad spot.

Because both of them are likely to shoot for a finish, my best bet is the fight not going the full distance.

Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes odds

Method of Victory	Krylov	Reyes
To win outright	-170	+135
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+305	+405
To win by decision or technical decision	+305	+405
To win by submission	+305	+1600
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-12.

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Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes tale of the tape

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