UFC 314 Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull Predictions, Picks & Odds

The UFC debut of Patricio “Pitbull” Freire is upon us as he faces off against Yair Rodriguez as one of our featured attractions on the UFC 314 undercard. It’s better late than never for Pitbull to join the party, and he’s making up for lost time in what could be the fight of the night against the explosive Rodriguez.

UFC odds favor Rodriguez at -200, and Pitbull is a +160 underdog. Here are my best Rodriguez vs. Pitbull predictions and free betting picks from Kaseya Center in Miami.

Rodriguez vs Pitbull prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pitbull moneyline (+135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Pitbull to win by submission or decision (+250 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Bellator legend “Pitbull” Freire is finally making his jump to the UFC and isn’t wasting time, facing off against a top featherweight in a division that’s wide-open following Ilia Topuria vacating his title to move to lightweight. 

Pitbull won’t have a soft landing, as Yair Rodriguez is an athletic striker with unorthodox technique, and with nearly 50 fights of wear in his MMA career, Pitbull faces a uniquely dangerous challenge in what should be an entertaining bout. Rodriguez’s recent losses have come against two former champions and a title contender, and a win over Pitbull should push him back into the title conversation.

With Bellator’s closure, the UFC has finally welcomed Pitbull, long considered one of the best fighters outside the promotion. A former multi-division champion with excellent striking and a BJJ black belt, Pitbull has competed at a championship level for over a decade. However, at 37 years old, he’s not at a point in his career where he can slowly build momentum, and he should be ready for the challenge. Despite being shorter and stockier than the rangy Rodriguez, Pitbull arguably holds a technical edge and will primarily need to deal with Rodriguez’s speed and unpredictability.

Rodriguez is a human highlight reel at his best, launching leaping knees, spinning elbows, and strikes from unconventional angles. He’s extremely dangerous early, overwhelming opponents who can’t keep up with his tempo. But when Rodriguez can’t maintain his offensive flash, he’ll gas out and be a sitting duck.

His tricks were neutralized against Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway and he was overwhelmed, catching brutal beatings. Brian Ortega also revealed that Rodriguez’s ground game is far less dangerous than his striking would suggest.

The early exchanges will be critical. Rodriguez starts fast, but Pitbull is capable of withstanding the storm and capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes. Rodriguez’s poor tactical decision-making gives Pitbull windows to land damaging counters or initiate takedowns. Though Rodriguez has the physical advantages and is the younger fighter, Pitbull’s technical prowess and adaptability give him a real chance at pulling off the upset.

This should be a fun fight, and I expect Pitbull to come out on top for the minor upset.

Best bet analysis
Rodriguez cannot get it done against strong grapplers, and Pitbull has the skills and experience to survive his early onslaught and find a way to get him on the mat once he tires. I expect Pitbull to use his technical talents to wear Rodriguez out, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he threatens a submission or two before the night is over. Taking Pitbull to win by submission or decision is my best bet.

Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull odds

Method of Victory	Rodriguez	Pitbull
To win outright	-170	+135
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+310	+725
To win by decision or technical decision	+130	+405
To win by submission	+1250	+725
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-12.

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Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull tale of the tape

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