UFC 314 Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes Predictions, Picks & Odds

Alexander Volkanovski faces Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight title at UFC 314 tonight. 

UFC odds opened with the former featherweight champ Volkanovski as a -150 favorite and Lopes at +120. However, money has come in on the younger fighter with Volk now at -130 and Lopes at +100.

See why I'm following that line movement with my UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes predictions and picks for April 12, from the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Volkanovski vs Lopes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Lopes ML (+100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Lopes by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (+175 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Volkanovski is one of the greatest featherweights in MMA history and had five defenses as the champ. That said, he's dropped his last two fights and is on the downward slope of his career at 36 years old. Meanwhile, the 30-year-old Lopes is on a five-fight winning streak and has momentum.

There's no shame for Volkanovski to lose against two of the Top 3 pound-for-pound fighters in the world in Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, but how he lost worries me.

Volk took the fight against Makhachev on 10 days' notice and was knocked out cold by a head-kick in the first round. Then he fought the hardest hitter at featherweight in Topuria on less than a four-month turnaround and was starched again. 

He's taken 14 months off since that previous defeat, which is a good thing physically and mentally. However, I have questions about the long-term effects on his durability, especially given his age and how draining the weight cut to 145 must be getting. 

Volkanovski looked noticeably slower in his last fight. He'll struggle against the pressure and speed of Lopes, who should be able to put him away.

Best bet analysis

Male fighters that are at least 35 years old are 3-26 in title fights in the welterweight division and below. Those three victories all came at welterweight, and one of them was a 35-year-old Tyron Woodley beating a 40-year-old Demian Maia.

Speed and reflexes are paramount in the smaller weight classes, and that advantage for Lopes, combined with questions about Volkanovski's chin, makes this a good bet.

To be fair, Volkanovski is still the more skilled fighter, and he certainly has a path to victory here. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Volkanovski's experience and cardio.

We've seen Lopes fade in the third round against a short-notice Dan Ige, and he doesn't have as much five-round experience as Volkanovski. If you like Lopes to win, it makes sense to back him inside the distance before Volk can get into a groove.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes odds

Method of Victory	Volkanovski	Lopes
To win outright	-155	+130
To win by KO/TKO/DQ	+310	+310
To win by decision or technical decision	+215	+475
To win by submission	+1900	+510
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 4-12.

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes tale of the tape

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