UFC 310 takes place this weekend at the T-Mobile Arena, and the final UFC pay-per-view of the year looks to deliver as Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura and Shavkat Rakhnonov vs. Ian Garry headline the event.
A deep preliminary card features a mix of veterans and upstarts matched together in a series of intriguing bouts that can boost your UFC betting haul.
UFC 310 prelim picks and predictions
Fight 1
• Prediction: Gorimbo moneyline (-155 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Gorimbo by decision (+120 at BET99)
Fight 2
• Prediction: Chiesa moneyline (-110 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Chiesa by decision (+205 at BET99)
Fight 3
• Prediction: Reyes moneyline (-370 at BET99)
• Best Bet: Reyes by KO/TKO (-140 at BET99)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 310 prelim odds and picks
Vicente Luque vs Themba Gorimbo fight odds
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||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Vincent Luque | Themba Gorimbo |
| To win outright | +125 | -155 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +725 | +550 |
| To win by decision | +405 | +120 |
| To win by submission | +450 | +1,250 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 12-5.
Themba Gorimbo has been building himself into a notable fighter thus far, and he’ll have a chance to show out against a veteran who should test him, even though he’s being set up to take a loss. For the sum of their parts, Vincent Luque is the better fighter from a skill perspective than Gorimbo, but he’s fallen off since suffering a brain bleed that Gorimbo’s size and athleticism will be too much for him to handle.
We’ll have to see how Gorimbo prepares for this, particularly as he’s a wrestle-heavy fighter going up against a fighter with poor striking defense, which would be a great opportunity to see how he can incorporate his striking.
Betting on Luque in his present form to score an upset against an opponent who can just bully him around the cage isn’t a wise choice. I’m taking Gorimbo to score the win, being able to maul Luque for the duration of the fight and securing a decision win.
Prediction: Gorimbo moneyline (-155 at BET99)
Best Bet: Gorimbo by decision (+120 at BET99)
Michael Chiesa vs Max Griffin fight odds
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|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Michael Chiesa | Max Griffin |
| To win outright | -110 | -110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,450 | +405 |
| To win by decision | +200 | +190 |
| To win by submission | +400 | +2,000 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 12-5.
This should end up being a fun fight between two tough welterweights in the twilight of their careers, and I have to admit being surprised seeing Chiesa opening as an underdog.
Neither of them has done much lately, but Michael Chiesa isn’t as faded as Max Griffin and is the more well-rounded fighter who isn’t known for having poor fight IQ. Griffin has been taken down in four of his last five fights and is looking his age at 39, and the only path to victory he’ll have is to be the first person to knock Chiesa out in over 10 years.
Chiesa may not be a high-level journeyman, but his body of work is better than Griffin’s, and he'll tough it out to get him on the mat. I’m picking Chiesa, and I’m picking him to win by decision.
Prediction: Chiesa moneyline (-110 at BET99)
Best Bet: Chiesa by decision (+205 at BET99)
Anthony Smith vs Dominic Reyes fight odds
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||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Anthony Smith | Dominic Reyes |
| To win outright | +260 | -370 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +850 | -140 |
| To win by decision | +675 | +405 |
| To win by submission | +1,150 | +900 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds as of 12-5.
I don’t believe the hype that Dominic Reyes is suddenly a player again after he shockingly slumped Dustin Jacoby in his last fight, and I’d dare to say the same fate would have befallen Anthony Smith if it was him instead.
Whether Reyes is somewhat back to his previous form is to be determined, but we can’t expect a checked-out and badly faded Smith to be the truthmaker in this bout of former title contenders. Reyes’ confidence should give him the boost he’ll need to take the fight to Smith, whose mobility is all gone, and put together another strong performance.
For now, I’m expecting Reyes to put together a vintage effort as he doles out a beating on Smith, earning his second straight knockout win in a row.
Prediction: Reyes moneyline (-370 at BET99)
Best Bet: Reyes by KO/TKO (-140 at BET99)
Not intended for use in MA.
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