A light-heavyweight rematch at UFC Fight Night will see two fighters fighting for relevance as each looks to get back on the winning track after recent losses. Despite winning the first fight via first-round submission, Anthony Smith comes into this one as a +110 underdog, with Ryan Spann coming back as a -130 favorite.
Let’s dig into the UFC odds as I give you my best bet for Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann on Saturday, August 26.
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann fight odds
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +370 | +195 |
| To win by points | +600 | +1,300 |
| To win by submission | +420 | +350 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 25, 2023.
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann betting preview
Smith enters this bout following back-to-back defeats against Johnny Walker, who is in the process of rebuilding his career, and Magomed Ankalaev, currently positioned as the second-ranked light heavyweight. Considering the quality of those opponents, I won’t downgrade Smith too much as he’s no stranger to bouncing back after losses — he now has 10 in the UFC but has never lost three in a row.
When analyzing this matchup, the first thing that stands out is Smith’s win over Spann in the main event of a Fight Night card in 2021. Spann landed a few decent shots, but Smith was in control for the majority of the fight. Just ahead of the three-minute mark of the opening round, Smith was able to drop Spann with some nice punches which eventually led to Smith taking his back and easily locking in a rear naked choke which forced Spann to tap.
Smith closed as a favorite in the -160 range for the fight. We must seriously contemplate whether Spann has truly narrowed the margin significantly between his performance in the fight against his current opponent two years ago and now, to the extent that he is now considered the betting chalk.
So what exactly is the case for Spann as the favorite here? Well, since the loss to Smith, he’s gone 2-1 with two impressive first-round finishes (along with an unimpressive first-round loss). Spann has shown an ability to be able to finish fights in a flash. His punches are heavy and he can drop an opponent out of nowhere, so he is extremely dangerous, especially vs. an opponent like Smith who has an extremely ugly -1.53 significant striking differential.
Smith is also the older fighter who has a lot more wear and tear. Retirement might also be in the back of his mind, with the 31-year-old already having had 54 career pro fights already under his belt and a future career in broadcasting waiting in the wings.
He declined to breathe much life into the retirement rumors following his loss to Johnny Walker, saying, “I still have it. There are some problems that I’ve got to fix, for sure, but it’s definitely not gonna happen like that. It’s not gonna be on a whim.”
That said, when retirement talk comes up, it’s not rare that retirement is soon to follow, so he could absolutely be in a different mindset for this fight.
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann tale of the tape
| Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 31 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 215 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 81.5 inches |
| 36-18 (20 KO) | Record | 21-8 (6 KO) |
Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Fight to end in the first round
Spann has seen an incredible nine of his 12 fights in the UFC get finished in the opening round. This includes six straight fights where he’s gone 3-3. Smith is also no stranger to early finishes either, with eight of his fights in the octagon failing to reach the second round.
Those patterns — along with each fighter having a negative striking differential — make this bet worth the -135 pricetag.
Prediction: Fight to end in the first round (-135 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Smith ML
I think the odds for this fight are seriously mispriced. Smith closed as a -160 favorite in the first fight with Spann two years ago — a fight he won fairly easily — and now we can get him at plus-money with not a whole lot changing since they last fought. It would be different if Spann clearly corrected some flaws and picked up some wins against higher-level competition, but that’s not the case.
He’s still very much a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter and I can see this fight going much like the first. If you go back and watch the first bout, it’s clear that Smith was extremely locked in and there’s no reason to doubt that he can’t bring that same focus on Saturday.
Pick: Anthony Smith moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
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