Brandon Moreno faces off against Amir Albazi in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight in Edmonton, Alberta.
This should be a banger between a pair of Top-3 flyweights, with UFC odds installing the former two-time champion Moreno as a -175 favorite and Albazi coming back at +135. Here are my free betting picks for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi on November 2.
Moreno vs Albazi prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Albazi moneyline (+135 at BET99) - My best bet
Albazi by decision (+235 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Amir Albazi is 5-0 in the UFC but hasn't fought since June 2023 when he defeated Kai Kara-France by split decision.
It was a controversial win, with many fans and members of the media giving the edge to Kara-France, but at the very least, it was an extremely competitive bout against a highly-ranked flyweight.
It was also arguably a tougher matchup for Albazi since KKF has an 88% takedown defense, while Moreno has struggled with his defensive wrestling in the past. Moreno was taken down six times and controlled for more than eight minutes when he lost the belt to Alexandre Pantoja last year.
He's now on a two-fight skid after losing by split decision to Brandon Royval in February. There's no shame in losing competitive bouts to flyweights of that caliber but I'm concerned with Moreno's mindset moving forward.
After the loss to Royval, Moreno said he needed to take time off to let his "body and mind recover". That was just seven months ago, and it's tough for former champs to dig deep when they know their days of fighting for the belt are likely over. On the other hand, a win for Albazi would likely earn him a title shot.
It's worth noting that Albazi underwent neck surgery in February. Still, all reports indicate that he's made a full recovery, and Moreno has even more mileage on his body after being in so many five-round wars over the last few years.
A big part of what made Moreno a champ was his heart, but I'm not sure he has that dog in him anymore. Back the hungrier fighter at plus money.
Best best analysis
Albazi can crack, but only one of his last 10 victories has come by KO/TKO, so I don't see him knocking out the durable Moreno. Despite Albazi's high-level grappling, he'll also have a tough time submitting Moreno, who has excellent scrambles and good defensive BJJ.
There's a lot of volatility at the top of the flyweight division. Most of the fighters are well-rounded but lack finishing power compared to the higher weight classes, which leads to more bouts going the distance.
Since this fight is expected to go the distance (-210 at BET99) and I'm leaning towards Albazi to win outright, consider betting his "to win by points" prop at +235.
Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Moreno | Albazi |
| To win outright | -169 | +140 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +405 | +1150 |
| To win by decision | +145 | +240 |
| To win by submission | +875 | +1050 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 11-2
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Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi tale of the tape
| Moreno | Albazi | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 21-8 (5 KO) | Record | 17-1 (5 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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