2024-25 NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Favored to Win MVP No. 3 Ahead of Season Opener

The NFL season is so close we can taste it, with NFL MVP odds board remaining largely the same throughout the spring and summer.

Standing at the top is someone you may hear about a lot — Patrick Mahomes. With Week 1 action almost upon us, here are the latest NFL MVP odds for the 2024-25 campaign.

Odds to win 2024-25 NFL MVP

Player
Patrick Mahomes	+475	+450
C.J. Stroud	+800	+1,200
Josh Allen	+900	+800
Joe Burrow	+950	+1,000
Jalen Hurts	+1,200	+1,200
Jordan Love	+1,400	+1,400
Aaron Rodgers	+1,800	+2,000
Brock Purdy	+2,000	+1,600
Lamar Jackson	+2,000	+1,600
Dak Prescott	+2,000	+2,000

Odds as of 9-3.

Favorites to win NFL MVP 

Patrick Mahomes (+450 to +475)

Life sure is sweet for Patrick Mahomes. After being the underdog in three of the four playoff games, Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory for the second straight year — and he even got another Super Bowl MVP to boot.

Speaking of MVP, books are listing Patty as the favorite to win the third of his career. Although Mahomes is coming off the lowest regular-season passer rating of his career (92.6), the Chiefs gunslinger came alive during the playoffs, boasting a 69.8% completion percentage with six touchdown passes and just one interception. 

C.J. Stroud (+850 to +1,200)

The Houston Texans are finally back to being relevant, and fans can thank C.J. Stroud for making them the team to beat in the AFC South.

The public is high on Stroud repeating his rookie success, with the Houston QB second on the board at DraftKings. The addition of Stefon Diggs will only help provide more big-time plays, and the lack of D for the Texans could force them to get into plenty of shootouts in 2024 — setting up Stroud to hang big numbers. 

Josh Allen (+800 to +900)

Josh Allen opened as the favorite to win the 2023 NFL MVP, and now he falls behind just the greatest QB in the league for 2024's award. 

Allen is coming off another stellar year for the Buffalo Bills, throwing for 4,300+ yards and 29 TDs, but his 18 INTs hurt any realistic chance he had of winning his first MVP. 

With a totally revamped receiving corps, does Allen have the weapons to challenge the league's best signal throwers?

Joe Burrow (+950 to +1,000)

Injuries held Joe Burrow to just 10 games over the 2023 campaign, and some people may be quick to forget just how good the Cincinnati Bengals QB is.

When healthy, the former No. 1 overall pick has been as clutch as it gets, sporting seven game-winning drives in his career and an impressive 3-1 record against Mahomes and the Chiefs.  

Burrow's had a full offseason to heal and get back to 100%, and his track record is any indication he'll be an even bigger threat to Kansas City's three-peat chances than Allen.

How to bet futures odds

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom). 

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board, as betting big underdogs is like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. 

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky, you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999, it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. 

The NBA MVP award, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. The NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 14 of the last 15 seasons. 

Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

2024 NFL MVP opening odds

Player	Odds
Patrick Mahomes	+600
Josh Allen	+650
Joe Burrow	+800
Lamar Jackson	+900
Jordan Love	+1,200
Brock Purdy	+1,200
Justin Herbert	+1,200
C.J. Stroud	+1,400
Jalen Hurts	+1,500
Dak Prescott	+1,500

Opening odds for the 2024 NFL MVP award were released immediately after Super Bowl LVIII on February 12, 2024. Surprise, surprise, all 10 spots were occupied by quarterbacks.

NFL MVP winners by position

Offensive players have dominated the NFL MVP Award since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.

NFL MVP winners by team

Team	NFL MVP Awards
Green Bay Packers	10
Indianapolis Colts	8
San Francisco 49ers	5
Cleveland Browns	4
Los Angeles Rams	4
Las Vegas Raiders	4
New England Patriots	3
Washington Commanders	3
Kansas City Chiefs	3

The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).

Former NFL MVP winners

Player	Year	Opening Odds
Lamar Jackson	2023	+1,600
Patrick Mahomes	2022	+700
Aaron Rodgers	2021	+800
Aaron Rodgers	2020	+3,000
Lamar Jackson	2019	+4,000
Patrick Mahomes	2018	+3,525
Tom Brady	2017	+385
Matt Ryan	2016	+7,500
Cam Newton	2015	+5,200
Aaron Rodgers	2014	+600

Listed above are the last 10 winners of the NFL MVP award, with Aaron Rodgers claiming three of them while on the Green Bay Packers.

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