WNBA 3-Point Contest Odds, Rules, Picks, and Predictions: Don't Sleep on Jones

It’s an Olympic year, which means the WNBA season is about to go on hiatus for a few weeks to make way for the games. However, that's not before the W heads to Phoenix for this year’s WNBA All-Star Weekend festivities, including the always entertaining WNBA 3-point contest.

Last year was a new apex for the event, as Sabrina Ionescu blew away the competition with a 37-point final round to capture the all-time record.

With the shocking news that Ionescu will not be participating this year — and perhaps the equally shocking revelation that neither would rookie shooting sensation Caitlin Clark — the contest seems wide open for the field of competitors announced on Wednesday night.

I take you through the WNBA odds and the favorites to win below. My WNBA picks also have an eye on one shooter who is being criminally undervalued ahead of Friday, June 19.

WNBA 3-Point Contest odds

Player	Team	3P%
Kayla McBride	Minnesota Lynx	42.7%	+115
Marina Mabrey	Connecticut Sun	35%	+310
Stefanie Dolson	Washington Mystics	48.5%	+410
Allisha Gray	Atlanta Dream	36%	+650
Jonquel Jones	New York Liberty	39.6%	+950

Odds as of 7-18-2024.

WNBA 3-Point Contest rules

Like the NBA, the WNBA has experimented with format changes to the 3-point contest in recent years. While the W often doesn’t release official rulesets until the broadcast of the contest, the expectation is that this year’s rules will see the return of last year’s format.

The following are the most relevant rules:

• Players are given 70 seconds to shoot 27 balls from five locations around the arc.
• Four of the five racks contain four WNBA game balls and one tri-colored "moneyball." The fifth rack contains five tri-colored moneyballs. Players choose in advance where they would like to have the moneyball rack positioned.
• Regular game balls are worth one point and moneyballs are worth two points.
• There are two additional "Starry Range" ball pedestals, one located between racks two and three and another between racks three and four. These balls are worth three points each.
• Players must exhaust the ball racks and pedestals in competition order before moving on to the next shooting location.
• The order of the competition is determined by a random draw.

WNBA 3-Point Contest favorites

Kayla McBride (+115)

With Sabrina Ionescu declining to defend her crown, Minnesota Lynx sharpshooter Kayla McBride has become the leading favorite at +115.

McBride is one of the few players to have previously participated in the 3-point contest, appearing way back in 2018. She opened with a respectable 22 points in the first round and 18 to tie Quigley in the second round, before ultimately losing in the final tiebreak with 21 points and failing to clear her closing rack. Notably, this was before the addition of “Starry Range” racks, so that’s eight potential points fewer.

McBride has been arguably the best shooter in the W this season and she does the best job of anyone when it comes to marrying volume and efficiency. The Lynx star takes the sixth most threes in the W at 7.1 per game and hits them at a sterling 42.7% clip.

If there are concerns about McBride, it’s that she gets quite a bit under her shot. She jumps forward a lot on her release, which could cost much-needed time and sap her energy for later rounds.

Marina Mabrey (+310)

It’s been a whirlwind week for Marina Mabrey. 

Mabrey was the prize trade target of the Chicago Sky in 2023, only to find herself traded again on Wednesday morning to the Connecticut Sun. Mabrey’s got one of the more aesthetically pleasing forms among WNBA shooters, but her efficiency has fallen off from deep throughout the season.

After a strong 39% mark last year, she’s down to just 35% this season. Still, Mabrey is one of the higher-volume players on this list and is certainly a reasonable option at +310.

Stefanie Dolson (+410)

Stefanie Dolson of the Washington Mystics comes into the contest with the honor of being the league’s most accurate 3-point shooter this season, hitting at a blistering 48.5% from downtown. 

She’s also one of two intriguing stretch-five options in this year’s field, and similar to Karl-Anthony Towns, there is a mechanical reason to favor Dolson or another center in this group. Dolson shoots a set shot, using little energy and creating no wasted movement with her form. Despite shooting said set shot, she also has a quick release. 

However, before this season, Dolson had never averaged more than two attempts from deep per game. It remains to be seen if she can blend her pinpoint accuracy with the speed and volume required to win.

Allisha Gray (+650)

Allisha Gray is having a solid season for the Atlanta Dream, but she’s a career 35% shooter from downtown. 

Gray’s inclusion feels mostly drawn from the need to add more actual star power in the contest, especially with the likes of Sabrina, Caitlin Clark, and Arike Ogunbowale not participating. She’s earned her long odds at +650 and is not a compelling candidate in the contest to me.

Jonquel Jones (+950)

Jonquel Jones enters Friday with the longest odds, which is somewhat puzzling to me. Not only is the New York Liberty center a 39.6% shooter from downtown this season, but she’s also another return participant to the 3-point contest — and it’s not like she made a poor showing in 2021.

The Liberty star had a strong opening round totaling 27 points, with Allie Quigley only narrowly edging her out at 28. She notably slowed in her second round, but it's important to remember that the contest was held at halftime of the All-Star game, where Jonquel was a featured player.

Jones still managed a very respectable 24 points and it took two unreal rounds by the Quigley to deny her the victory.

WNBA 3-Point Contest pick

Before I reacquainted myself with Jones’ performance from 2021, I doubted she had a realistic shot to win this contest. Having watched it back a few times, however, I have become her biggest backer. 

Although Jones loads up on her shot quite a bit during real WNBA games, she was able to modify her form for purposes of the contest in 2021, speeding up her form without compromising on accuracy. Not only did she score 27 points in her opening round, but she did so with more than 10 seconds remaining on the clock. 

Don’t get me wrong, McBride is also a deserving favorite, but the gap between these two is limited. With the difference in value being so stark, Jones is the clear choice for my best bet ahead of Friday’s contest.

Best bet: Jonquel Jones (+950 at FanDuel)

Past 3-Point Contest Winners

Year	Player
2023	Sabrina Ionescu
2022	Allie Quigley
2021	Allie Quigley
2020	N/A (Covid-19)
2019	Shekinna Stricklen
2018	Allie Quigley
2017	Allie Quigley

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