The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces are the only WNBA team to dominate the Indiana Fever this season, and they get the chance to continue that trend tonight when they visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Overwhelming WNBA MVP favorite A’ja Wilson is set to return from a one-game absence, and our Aces vs. Fever predictions expect her to be the difference maker.
Read on for my WNBA picks on Wednesday, September 11.
Aces vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Aces -3.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces remain on the road for the matchup most WNBA fans have been looking forward to since the start of the second half.
While the Aces are only 6-4 since the break, they are an experienced group riding a 13-game winning streak over the Indiana Fever, and none of those victories have been particularly close.
Las Vegas won both 2024 meetings with Indiana comfortably, easily covering spreads between 13 and 16 points behind A’ja Wilson's scoring and Jackie Young's defense.
Wilson missed the Aces game against the New York Liberty, but she is the straw that stirs the drink. She scored 57 points in their two previous meetings against Indiana, while Young held Fever guard Caitlin Clark to only 21 points total in those clashes.
Vegas is typically a faster-playing group, but the Aces rank ninth in pace since the break. Clark and the Fever thrive in a fast-paced game environment, but they aren’t going to get the pace they want, and Vegas is too experienced to allow it.
Vegas opened at -1.5, which ballooned to -3.5 with Wilson off the injury report. The Aces are the only WNBA group the Fever haven’t beaten because Las Vegas is a nightmare matchup for Indiana.
Young and Chelsea Gray are bigger and more physical guards, and they’ll prevent Clark from going off by slowing down the pace and getting handsy. Clark and the Fever will try to push the pace, but Vegas is too experienced, and Wilson has been unstoppable against the Fever frontcourt.
Wilson will show Fever fans why she is the MVP and the Aces will comfortably cover.
Caitlin Clark pick: Scoring grinds to a halt
My best bet
Under 22.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Clark has dominated since the break, averaging 25.5 points per night for the highest-scoring team with the fastest tempo.
That breakneck pace is why Clark scores big. She’s blown up her scoring prop in eight of her last 10 games, but the two she didn’t came against groups that didn’t give her the pace she needed, and she failed to clear 20 points in each clash.
Clark’s scoring prop on Sunday against Atlanta was 19.5, so why the huge spike to 22.5 (-130)? She scored 20 in regulation, and that was the seventh-fastest game the Fever have played since the break. Vegas plays slower, has better defenders, and will keep Clark from clearing 23 tonight
Aces vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces -3.5
Caitlin Clark Under 22.5 points
Kelsey Mitchell 18+ points
While her backcourt mate might have difficulties, Kelsey Mitchell is a different type of scorer, and 18+ on the alternate line is a good number to attack tonight.
Mitchell makes sharp cuts to the cup, and Clark and Aliyah Boston have done a terrific job getting her the rock. She’s the league’s second-leading scorer since the break (24.9) and is draining 50% from the field and 44% from downtown in her last 10.
Mitchell has scored 18+ in all 10 of those games. She’ll get hers, Clark won’t, and the Aces will leave Gainbridge Fieldhouse with a comfortable victory tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Fever odds
Aces vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -2.5 (-110) | Indiana +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -140 | Indiana +120
- Over/Under: Over 177.5 (-110) | Under 177.5 (-110)
Aces vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Wilson news caused the spread to spike to as high as -3.5 (-115) from an opener as low as -1.5 (-110).
- The Fever are 2-3-0 ATS across their last five and 2-3-0 ATS in their last five home tilts.
- The Aces are 1-4-0 to the Under across their last five while Indiana is 5-0-0 to the Over in their last five clashes.
Aces vs Fever trend
The Las Vegas Aces are 5-0-0 ATS across their last five and 4-1-0 ATS on two days' rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Fever.
Aces vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Aces vs Fever latest injuries
Aces: None.
Fever: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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