The defending champion Las Vegas Aces hit the road to take on the struggling Phoenix Mercury in a battle of two underachieving squads.
Phoenix is a three-point home underdog, and my Aces vs Mercury predictions expect this to be a high-scoring affair regardless of the winner. Find out why in my WNBA picks for September 1.
Aces vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Over 167.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It hasn’t been the year most Las Vegas Aces fans. But despite the struggles, the Aces still have the second-shortest WNBA championship odds in the league. That’s because of their offense, led by MVP odds favorite A’ja Wilson.
Behind Wilson, Las Vegas leads the WNBA in points per game (86.9) and pace (80.3) while sitting second in offensive rating (107.7).
Nobody seems capable of slowing down Wilson — who’s putting up a league-leading 27 points per game — but it’s not just her that makes this offense so dangerous.
Both Kelsey Plum (17.6 ppg) and Jackie Young (17.1 ppg) rank Top 20 in scoring and combine to hit 4.8 threes per game. That will come in handy against the Mercury, who allow the most 3-pointers per game in the league (8.9).
Phoenix’s defense as a whole has been iffy this season, allowing the fourth-most points per game in the WNBA (84.4) and ranking ninth in defensive rating (106.7).
However, it’s not just the Mercury’s defense that will help the Over cash. The offense is capable of exploiting the struggling Aces’ defense.
Led by Kahleah Copper, Phoenix is putting up 82.7 ppg and is second in the league in 2-point percentage (50.6%).
Copper sits only behind Wilson in points per game (22.3), and she’s not carrying this offense alone. Brittney Griner has been a force inside, averaging 18.1 ppg, and Diana Taurasi remains ageless while putting up 15.6 ppg.
Meanwhile, Vegas is allowing the sixth-most ppg in the league (82.8) and has been killed on the perimeter. The Aces allow the third-most deep balls per game (8.2) and the second-highest 3-point percentage (36.4%).
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 167.5
A'ja Wilson Over 38.5 points + rebounds
Kahleah Copper Over 21.5 points
If the Over is going to hit, it’s going to be because Wilson has yet another monster performance. She’s averaging a combined 38.8 points and rebounds this season and has been unstoppable in her last three games.
Wilson is averaging 29.3 ppg and 13.3 boards in her last three, and has gone Over 38.5 combined in 16 of 31 games (two of those Pvers came against PHX).
To keep up with Wilson and the Aces' offense, Copper is going to have to continue playing at an All-Star level. Coming off a few quieter games, the odds for her to go Over 21.5 points are even money.
That value is too good to pass up, given she’s scored 22+ in 15 games this season — including in three of six games since the return from the Olympic break. Copper also dropped 37 against Vegas earlier in the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Mercury odds
Aces vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -3.5 (-105) | Phoenix +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -165 | Phoenix +140
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 (-105) | Under 168.5 (-115)
Aces vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Aces opened as a 2.5 to 3-point favorite, with most books now listing Las Vegas between -3.5 and -4.
- Las Vegas is just 11-20 ATS this season, while Phoenix is 17-14-1.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 170.5 with most books now offering it between 167.5 and 168.5.
- The Aces are 15-16 to the Over this season, and the Mercury are 14-17-1.
Aces vs Mercury trend
The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Phoenix. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mercury.
Aces vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-1-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AZFAm, SSSEN |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: No injuries to report.
Mercury: Charisma Osborne G (Out), Rebecca Allen F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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