Saturday, June 10 sees the league-leading Las Vegas Aces face off against the turbulent Los Angeles Sparks. Vegas currently paces the entire WNBA at 10-2, while the Sparks are struggling to gain traction at 5-7.
Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs Sparks for why we like the Aces to make this a long night for L.A. fans.
Aces vs Sparks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Aces vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 6/11/2022 at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Sparks info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Facebook
Aces vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: Jackie Young (Questionable).
Sparks: Rae Burrell (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Aces are 8-4 ATS so far this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Sparks.
Aces vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Las Vegas Aces have been absolutely dominant. They currently sit alone atop the WNBA standings at a sterling 10-2 and even that number doesn’t tell the whole story of just how good they’ve been. The usual strong play of A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young has been enhanced by a breakout season by Kelsey Plum.
Plum is on the fast track to her first All-Star appearance, averaging 19.8 points and 6.0 assists on a blistering 56.3 eFG%. She’s been one of the players to most benefit from the biggest offseason addition by the Aces: head coach Becky Hammon.
Despite featuring a mid range assassin like Wilson, Hammon has sought to retrofit the Aces’ old fashioned offense for the 21st century, and they are now a volume 3-point shooting team. Just last season, the Aces were dead last in the percentage of their offense that came from beyond the arc at just 19.2%. This season they’ve leaped all the way to 36.5%, good enough for fifth in the W. That offensive transformation has led Vegas to a balanced inside-out attack, and the best offensive rating in the league through 12 games.
The Sparks, meanwhile, are currently caught in a maelstrom of controversy that threatens to sink the team. Head coach and general manager Derrick Fischer was just recently fired and star big Liz Cambage is facing accusations of racist conduct against the Nigerian Olympic team. Cambage has had a turbulent career in the WNBA and has not exactly endeared herself to all of her teammates in her prior stops, most recently Vegas. Both parties should be motivated for this matchup.
The Aces aren’t likely to show much mercy to this Sparks team that’s in the midst of serious organizational chaos, and their distributed, best-in-league perimeter attack should see them cover here.
Prediction: Aces -7.5 (-125 888sport)
Over/Under analysis
By rating, the Sparks are the worst defensive team in the WNBA at 107.2. Their talent says they should be better than that, but they’re not a cohesive group, and opponents that make them work for multiple actions in a single possession give them serious problems. The Aces are one such team, though they’re a poor offensive rebounding team, their perimeter attack is rapid and relentless. The Sparks are often caught out of position, leading to their second-worst foul rate and easy points for their opponents.
The Aces are also tops in the WNBA for pace, and the Sparks aren’t too far behind them. This should be a fast-paced game where the Aces are able to poke holes in the Sparks' defense early and often. Cambage should be motivated to score and Nneka Ogwumike should also give the Aces some issues.
The combination of outstanding Aces offense, lackluster Sparks defense, pace, and matchups are why I like the Over.
Prediction: Over 173.5 (-110 888sport)
Best bet
The Aces are a surgical and unforgiving offense. Much like the Golden State Warriors, it only takes an inattentive few minutes on defense to give up an 8-0 game-sealing run. If you were looking for a team in the W right now that might not have all its focus squarely on the game in front of them, the Sparks would be a good bet.
With everything they’re dealing with, it’s my expectation that they won’t have the requisite focus, discipline, and cohesion to keep things even moderately close against this Las Vegas squad.
Pick: Aces -7.5 (-125 888sport)
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