In basketball, as in life, happiness is all about managing expectations. Turning those expectations to one’s advantage is one of the keys to sports betting.
While a one-sided seeming matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and the Dallas Wings might not scream “must bet”, the clear disparity in talent and skill creates a strong betting opportunity for those willing to look below the surface.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Wings for Thursday, August 4 think there’s value in betting against the Western Conference-leading Las Vegas tonight.
Aces vs Wings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Las Vegas Aces have opened as 8.5-point favorites. The total opened as high as 171.5 but has now dropped to 170.5 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Aces vs Wings predictions
Predictions made on 8/4/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Wings info
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• Date: Thursday, August 4, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSWX
Aces vs Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Wings: Arike Ogunbowale G (Questionable), Satou Sabally F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Aces' last eight games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.
Aces vs Wings picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Dallas Wings are coming off arguably their best win of the year, a six-point victory over the Chicago Sky, which saw them cover by 18.5 points.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces are on the heels of a 10-point loss to the Washington Mystics and will be looking to reestablish their winning ways with a get-right game against Dallas.
One might reasonably expect that the Aces would want to follow up a disappointing loss with a statement win against an inferior opponent. Except that hasn’t been the Aces’ m.o. this year. Las Vegas is just 1-6 against the spread following a straight-up loss this season.
In Kelsey Plum and A’ja Wilson, the Aces have two of the WNBA’s Top-5 scorers. They were awarded four All-Star spots, and in my view, Chelsea Gray was a deserving candidate to be their fifth. This is a team that is just stocked with talent and has a real argument for being the most star-laden of any WNBA team ever. That they aren’t yet consistently maximizing that talent is another story.
They’re so good that they’re often liable to play with their food. Like many superteams, they find it difficult to give their best effort for a full 48 minutes simply because they rarely have to. So they play down to their opponent and do just enough to pull out a win, often with a dominant fourth-quarter performance.
Their overall talent level comes with expectations, and typically not the most favorable lines, leading to the Aces' less than impressive 14-15 record against the spread this season. By contrast, Dallas, an unremarkable team in many ways and owners of a middling 14-16 record, are monsters against the spread. Their 18-11-1 record ATS trails only the Washington Mystics this season.
The Wings are just a solid team. Their -0.3 net rating is the closest to a neutral net rating of any team in the “W”, even though they don’t excel in any one area of the game. They’re a good rebounding team, they have scoring talent, and they consistently find ways to cover.
I’m betting they find a way to do so again tonight against a sometimes less than focused Las Vegas squad.
Prediction: Wings +8.5 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
This Aces team is the best offense in the WNBA and their 108.4 rating, if it holds through the end of the season, would be the best mark since 2019. That number is readily baked into this line, which is why it’s so high to begin with.
For all their offensive firepower though, backing the Over has not been a winning strategy for Aces bettors recently. Seven of the last eight Aces games have hit the Under and for the same reasons I like the Wings to cover tonight, I’m inclined to think this trend continues.
Las Vegas has all the offensive tools in the world, which sometimes leaves them unsure just which ones they ought to use in any given matchup. It’s a strange embarrassment of riches that sometimes plague top college recruiting teams but one you rarely see at the pro level.
It’s also worth noting that Arike Ogunbowale, though considered likely to play, is still officially questionable. Ogunbowale is one of the most prolific 3-point bombers in the “W” and more or less is the Wings' offense.
Losing her eight 3-point attempts per game at 35.1% would torpedo Dallas’ offense, and almost guarantee the Under. Even if she plays, ankle injuries make for tricky return games for outside shooters, so it’s fair to expect modest productivity relative to her usual standards.
Prediction: Under 170.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Best bet
If it wasn’t for her the play of her own teammate A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum might be the clubhouse leader for MVP.
Raising her scoring average from 14.8 points per game to her current average of 20.2 is impressive enough in its own right but what makes her season remarkable is that she’s made that leap in productivity while also becoming drastically more efficient from the field.
Most of that jump has come from her 3-point shooting. Plum’s 42.4% mark from deep on 7.4 attempts per game makes up nearly half of her offense, and it’s why I like the Under on her points total tonight.
The Wings are one of the few WNBA teams that make defending the perimeter their priority. They allow the second-fewest opponent 3-point attempts per game, (trailing only the Chicago Sky) and the fourth-lowest opponent 3-point efficiency.
With Plum likely denied her typical diet of easy outside looks, this Under becomes my favorite bet on the board.
Pick: Kelsey Plum Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
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