Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Stewart Shines Again

The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun have set the pace in the Eastern Conference all year, but it’s been one-way traffic in their head-to-head meetings — and the Liberty go for the season sweep in Friday’s showdown.

Peaking at the right moment, New York is riding a four-game win streak and edged the star-studded clash with the Las Vegas Aces 94-85 on Monday. That wrapped up a 10-1 record for the Liberty in August. 

While the hosts are well rested, this is the second night of a back-to-back set for the Sun, who used a 20-8 third quarter to pull away from the Phoenix Mercury last night. Connecticut has rebounded with consecutive victories after a gut-wrenching overtime loss to the Liberty last week.

Get the lowdown on tonight’s matchup with our free Sun vs. Liberty WNBA picks and predictions for September 1.

Sun vs Liberty best odds

Sun vs Liberty picks and predictions

While the Liberty boast a 3-0 record against the Sun this season, each contest has been tighter than the last, from a 16-point blowout in late May through to last week’s OT nail-biter. 

But one constant in these showdowns has been Breanna Stewart’s production. She’s averaging 23 points a game against Connecticut, including a 24-point night last Thursday on 9-for-20 shooting. I expect a similar line from Stewart again tonight, who has the size to dominate in the paint against a smaller Sun frontcourt.   

Stewart’s efficiency means she doesn’t need a ton of touches to put up a monster stat line, but she may also be in line for more shots tonight with Sabrina Ionescu, who led the way with 25 points against the Aces on Monday, listed as questionable with a calf injury.

Of course, if Stewart plays like she did against the Minnesota Lynx last weekend, her points prop is an even more obvious Over. She finished with 38 points (12-for-17 from the field, with six triples and a perfect 8-for-8 at the line) in just 27 minutes in that 111-76 rout.

I see New York putting on another slick offensive outing tonight. Look for Stewart, who broke the Liberty’s single-season scoring record last week against this same opponent, to be at the heart of it all.

My best bet: Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 Points (-125 at bet365)

Sun vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis

These two teams have been locked together in the standings for most of the season, but the Liberty have finally pulled away down the stretch — in part because they’ve had the Sun’s number in their head-to-head contests. As a 7.5-point favorite, the smart money says New York will complete a season sweep tonight.

But, with a 14-5 road record, Connecticut shouldn’t be underestimated in this spot. The visitors are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five contests overall. Their motivation to finally get over the hump against this New York powerhouse should be strong too.

With DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas playing huge minutes (and combining for 52 points) in their matchup last week, the Sun were poised for the W before a relentless Liberty comeback to force overtime. That duo will be asked to shoulder a big offensive burden again here.

Still, the case for the hosts is compelling. They’re 8-2 ATS in their past 10 outings and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Barclays Center, while still eyeing the No.1 seed overall. 

The Liberty shooters have been on a roll over the past month — and that’s resulted in a heavy dose of Overs. The Over is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents, and the hosts have topped 90 points in each of their last three games.

While the Under is 4-1 in the teams’ last five meetings in New York, I see the Liberty’s potent offense forcing the Sun to play at a faster pace tonight. The total line is set around 164.5 here, and the teams’ past two matchups (both in Uncasville) have cleared that number.

Sun vs Liberty betting trend to know

The Sun may not be the WNBA’s flashiest offensive team, but they’re putting up 83 points a night this season and the Over is 6-2 in their last eight games against opponents with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Liberty.

Sun vs Liberty game info

Sun vs Liberty key injuries

Sun: DiJonai Carrington G (Doubtful), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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