Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Wings Travel Well

If you come at the king, you best not miss. Right now, the undisputed top dog of the WNBA is none other than the Las Vegas Aces, which means they get every team’s best shot night in and night out in an attempt to knock them off their perch. It just so happens that their opponent on Sunday, the Dallas Wings, is one of only two teams to do so this season.

While the Aces have just kept winning since their loss to Dallas in early July, they’ll have to get revenge on one of the few teams that’s made them sweat all season to extend their current streak to seven victories.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Wings vs. Aces on July 30 believe today’s WNBA odds are undervaluing the Wings, who should be able to keep things close against the defending champs.

Wings vs Aces best odds

Wings vs Aces picks and predictions

This one should be a barn burner. The Dallas Wings and Las Vegas Aces have already played twice this year, and both were hotly contested games that required the Aces to dig deeper into their collective talent than in any other matchup this season. 

The Wings earned a split in those first two games but won both comfortably against the spread, and they’ve only improved in the intervening time. And it’s that improvement relative to Las Vegas that has me backing the Wings to cover on Sunday.

While the Aces still outclass the Wings in most departments when you look at the season-long numbers, the gap between the teams has begun to narrow in July, and even more so since the All-Star break.

The Aces have mostly held steady (relative to their lofty position) but the Wings have played at a whole new level since the break, posting a gaudy +13.8 net rating in four games.

These are the top two teams in terms of points in the paint, but most teams don’t have the interior shot blocking that Dallas does to hang with A’ja Wilson. Wilson has the skill, guile, and technique edge against Teaira McCowan, but McCowan is a massive body and no slouch defending the rim. In July, the Wings are allowing the fewest points in the paint of any team at just 32.5 per game, in no small part due to her efforts inside.

The other critical development has been the loss of Candace Parker. Parker going out for the season has forced the Aces into playing more small ball. That arguably plays right into Dallas’ greatest edge in this matchup, which comes on the glass. 

Since the All-Star break, the Wings have a 39.6% offensive rebounding rate and a 80.7% defensive one, both easily topping the W in that span. They are bullying teams on the boards to generate gobs of extra possessions, which has elevated their already very good offense to one that can genuinely hang with Las Vegas.

In previous matches, one of the Aces' key edges has been at the free-throw line. Not only do the Aces get to the line a lot, they also give up the fewest opponent free throws in the league. Often, the size of that margin is the decisive factor for the Aces. They outscored the Wings by a whopping 10 points from the foul line the last time these teams played in Vegas.

That’s been problematic for the Wings in the past, as they average more than 20 opponent free throws per game on the season. That’s also one of the things they’ve studiously improved recently, however, knocking that number all the way down to just 16 per game since the break, one of the better numbers in the W and just narrowly behind the Aces at 15.7.

The Wings' improvement in so many areas has them on a roll. They’re 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record (two of which came against the Aces). I think oddsmakers are underestimating how good Dallas has been of late, making this my favorite bet for Sunday’s game.

My best bet: Wings +11 (-110 at SIA)

Wings vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

While it’s always a touch nerve-wracking to bet against the Aces in their own barn, they haven’t been as dominant ATS there as one might think. They’re just 3-3 ATS in their last six games at home, with of course one of those ATS losses coming in their July 5 matchup against these Wings. That game has helped solidify Dallas’ status as road warriors this season, and they’re now 4-1 ATS in their last five away from College Park Center.

If the Aces have one obvious advantage, it’s from behind the arc. Las Vegas has the edge in 3-point shooting and 3-point defense. While the Wings get up a lot of attempts, they hit less than 30% of them, while the Aces are just a hair behind the New York Liberty for tops in the Association at 37.6%. But there is more variance game to game in shooting than there is in things like paint scoring and offensive rebounding, which is why I think Dallas is the much better bet to cover.

The total for Sunday’s contest between Wings and Aces opened at 172.5, a sky-high mark that has risen by a full point to 173.5 at most sportsbooks. These are two of the three best offenses in the W, but that’s far from the whole story as to why this total is set so high.

These are both low turnover teams, and they are two of the highest true shooting teams over the last five games as well. That means a lot of shots on goal and fewer empty possessions which leads to much higher scoring outcomes. Combined with the Wings' penchant for getting offensive boards, there is a good chance offense is what defines this matchup.

Further, the Aces and Wings rank second and third in pace respectively, and unsurprisingly are also some of the top teams in terms of fast break points. Anything that neutralizes the Aces' All-World defense is going to have a significant impact for the potential Over. Then there’s recent trends with the Over cashing in four of Dallas’ last five, and five of Las Vegas’ last six.

But when these two teams last played, it was something of a defensive slog, with the total hitting just 158, and the game prior to that would still have been well below this mark at 169. I’d be wary of laying either side at this number.

Wings vs Aces betting trend to know

Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Aces.

Wings vs Aces game info

Wings vs Aces key injuries

Wings: Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Alysha Clark F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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