Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Nothing Beats Aces

The Las Vegas Aces are attempting to stretch their league-leading winning streak to nine straight games as they host the Dallas Wings on Wednesday, July 5. The Aces just avenged their only loss of the season with an emphatic win over the Connecticut Sun, while the Wings are coming off a strong performance against the Washington Mystics. Can Dallas carry that momentum over against the defending champs who have been virtually unbeatable this season?

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Wings vs Aces are continuing to ride with Las Vegas as they continue one of the most dominant stretches of play in professional basketball history.

Wings vs Aces best odds

Wings vs Aces picks and predictions

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the Las Vegas Aces are really, really good. On the broadcast during the Aces' most recent game against the Connecticut Sun (which they won 104-82) Ryan Ruocco mused that if Las Vegas keeps this up much longer, the Aces will in the discussion with the All-Time great teams like the Sheryl Swoopes Houston Comets and the Maya Moore/Sylvia Fowles Minnesota Lynx. It might feel premature to put them in such lofty company, but what’s scary is we keep seeing this Aces team get better.

For all the talk about the Aces, it remains somehow understated how dominant they have truly been. As of their last game, they now not only own the top offensive rating in the league (114.1) but also have narrowly edged out the Washington Mystics for the top defense (94.5). That all adds up to a preposterous plus 19.5 net rating. 

That’s not a typo, the Aces are beating opposing teams on a nightly basis by an average of nearly 20 points in a 40-minute game. The Wings, by contrast, have the fifth-best net rating, so in the top half of the WNBA, at just 1.7. Their renewed commitment to the defensive side of the ball lately has their rivals, and the entire league, searching for answers.

The Dallas Wings are also a team striving to get better, but they’re doing it more haphazardly. They bet big on the growth of Satou Sabally this season, and her growth has been incredible. But the offensive fit between Sabally, Arike Ogunbowale, and Natasha Howard has not been seamless. They play a lot of isolation basketball, which while effective, is clearly leaving some meat on the bone for a player like Sabally, who is at her best when she’s moving, screening, and finding seams to attack. A team like Vegas is simply too good to beat with the static one-on-one actions Dallas likes to run.

One problem (of many) with facing the Aces is there aren’t a lot of mismatches to hunt for either Arike or Sabally. The Aces have a plethora of strong guard defenders, Chelsea Gray foremost among them, more than comfortable forcing Arike into tough pull-up shots. They also have A’ja Wilson, Candace Parker, and Kiah Stokes, who can all take turns on Satou or Howard, and they toggle between different defensive schemes to keep opponents off balance. It’s hard to see what advantage Dallas will have at any position, and harder yet to see how they keep this competitive over 40 minutes of action.

I’d have preferred to get this line right when it opened at -13.5 but would be comfortable betting this up to -15.5. At -14.5 and with the Aces at home and rested, this remains a solid value.

My best bet: Aces -14.5 (-115 at Betway)

Wings vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

The Aces opened at -13.5, which quickly shot up as high as -15.5 at some sportsbooks. The difference across different sportsbooks for this matchup is significant, so it’s definitely worth price-hunting for the best WNBA odds. 

While their defense has been the thing that has impressed me most about the Aces lately, their offense remains beautiful to watch (and damned effective). Las Vegas is up to 60.8% true shooting as a team. They have the lowest turnover rate, and they never foul. The only area they aren’t dominating is offensive rebounding, and that’s more of a feature and not a bug of their scheme that prioritizes transition defense. The Wings are going to need at least two of Arike, Satou, and Howard to have hot shooting nights just to keep this margin from getting silly.

Another reason to be skeptical of the Wings' chances for Wednesday has been their consistent inconsistency. The Wings are good, but they’ve yet to put it all together for a five-game stretch this season. Indeed, they’re just 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS win. They’re also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, the direct inversion of Las Vegas who is 5-2 ATS in that same span.

The line for Wednesday’s game between the Wings and Aces has come in at 173.5, one of the highest marks I’ve seen from sportsbooks this season, and that number has only continued to climb as high as 175.5 at the time of writing. The Aces have eclipsed 90 points in nine of their last 10 games, and oftentimes by a lot. The Over is also 4-1 in their last five games.

The question is whether the Wings can do enough to keep pace. Despite their obvious talent, the Wings are perfectly average on both sides of the ball, rating sixth in the WNBA on both offense and defense. I’d expect their offense to suffer more against this Aces team than their defense at this point. The Under is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five games, and 7-3-1 in games against winning teams.

Wings vs Aces betting trend to know

Wings are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Aces.

Wings vs Aces game info

Wings vs Aces key injuries

Wings: Diamond DeShields G (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal F (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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