The schedule makers didn’t do the offensively challenged Atlanta Dream any favors as they ride a season-worst seven-game losing skid into Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Lynx tonight.
Minnesota owns the league’s second-best scoring defense and these Dream vs. Lynx predictions expect it will be the crux of making this a low-scoring game.
With the Lynx installed as 7.5-point favorites, let's break down the matchup with our best WNBA picks for Wednesday, July 17.
Dream vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Under 152.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Already the lowest-scoring team in the WNBA at 75 points per game, the Atlanta Dream were shut down again in an 81-70 loss to the Seattle Storm. They've now scored 70 or fewer in four straight and are churning out just 72.9 points per game while shooting a paltry 25.7% from 3-point range over their seven-game losing skid.
Their defense is decent, but not enough to cover up those scoring woes. Over the last seven games, Atlanta is limiting teams to 42.8% shooting from the field — which would rank Top 4 — and the 82 points per game allowed would sit middle of the pack.
In the last game against the Minnesota Lynx, Atlanta mustered just 55 points while shooting a woeful 28.8% from the field and a brutal 4-for-23 — a 17.4% clip — from downtown.
Minnesota is coming off an 81-74 home loss to the Indiana Fever, the third time in four games it’s been held to 74 points or less. That’s well below its season average of 81, which ranks seventh.
A matchup with Atlanta should be a get-right game for the Lynx defense, which has allowed an average of 86 points per game over the last two losses.
This defense holds teams to 74.9 points per game, second only to the Connecticut Sun, while ranking first in both field-goal and 3-point shooting percentage.
However, both teams have something to play for. Despite this extended losing streak, Atlanta is still ninth in the league standings, very much in the mix for a playoff berth. The Lynx sit fifth, right in the thick of the chase for a Top-4 seed and home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.
Look for Minnesota to find its defensive groove tonight, especially as star Napheesa Collier deals with plantar fascia pain in her left foot. Listed as a game-time decision, she’ll still be less than 100% if she does take the court.
All this points to the Under hitting for the fifth time in the last seven head-to-head matchups.
Dream vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 152.5
Kayla McBride Under 16.5 points
Allisha Gray Under 16.5 points
Lynx guard Kayla McBride is coming off a rough 4-for-14 shooting performance against the Fever, finishing with 11 points.
With Collier potentially missing this game, Minnesota’s second-leading scorer would seem like an obvious choice to pick up the slack. However, McBride hasn’t been scoring much lately. Her line of 16.5 points seems a little high, especially since she has only scored 17 or more points four times in the last 14 games and was held to just eight on 3-for-10 shooting in the last matchup.
We’re targeting head-to-heads this year when picking Dream guard Allisha Gray to go Under her 16.5 total, too.
Gray has been scoring fairly consistently of late, going for 17 or more in seven of her last 10, but has tallied just seven points on a combined 3-for-23 shooting from the field in two games vs. the Lynx.
Expect those struggles to continue.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Lynx odds
Dream vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Lynx WNBA odds for today.
Dream vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +8.5 (-110) | Minnesota -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +325 | Minnesota -425
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Dream vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has won five of the last seven head-to-head matchups.
- Atlanta is 6-2 against the spread over its last eight games.
- Atlanta has gone Under the total in four straight.
- The Under has cashed in four of the last six matchups.
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Dream vs Lynx trend
The Under is 6-0-1 in Minnesota’s last seven games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Lynx.
Dream vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-17-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPCH, BSN |
Dream vs Lynx latest injuries
Dream: Jordin Canada G (Out), Rhyne Howard G (Out).
Lynx: Napheesa Collier F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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