Two teams desperate for wins at the bottom of the WNBA playoff picture clash tonight when the Phoenix Mercury host the Atlanta Dream.
It will be the fourth and final regular-season meeting between these teams, and my Dream vs. Mercury predictions are targeting the total — and a lower-scoring affair.
Read on for my full WNBA picks on Tuesday, September 3.
Dream vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Under 160.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Atlanta Dream finally put an end to an ugly four-game slide with an 80-62 win Sunday over the lowly LA Sparks.
That win, coupled with another loss by the eighth-seeded Chicago Sky, pulls the Dream to an identical 11-21 record but leaves them out of the playoff picture due to Chicago owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Dream are the lowest-scoring team in the WNBA, and during this stretch are somehow improved offensively while averaging just 78.4 points per game. That’s not enough to help a tough defense that ranks fifth in points allowed at 79.9 per contest, tied for second in field-goal shooting defense at 42.4%.
The Phoenix Mercury also have just one win in their last five, including three straight defeats, the latest a 97-79 thumping at the hands of the Las Vegas Aces.
Their struggles have pushed them down to seventh in the standings, passed by the surging Indiana Fever. Fortunately, up 4.5 games up on the mess surrounding eighth place, Phoenix should be in the mix, barring a major collapse.
The Mercury are average in scoring at 82.5 points per game (seventh), but their offense has taken a nosedive during this recent slide, averaging just 74 points a game. That’s not going to get it done with a defense allowing 84.4 points per game, right on par with Phoenix’s season average.
Considering both teams’ recent struggles scoring the ball, targeting the total is the best play here, with the Under sporting a healthy 4-2-1 record over the last seven meetings.
Dream vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 160.5
Kahleah Copper Under 23.5 points
Allisha Gray Over 1.5 threes
Perhaps it’s not at all surprising that the Mercury have started struggling at around the same time Kahleah Copper’s game has gone off a cliff.
She had 15 points in 31 minutes in the loss to Vegas, marking the fourth straight game Copper — Phoenix's leading scorer at 22.1 points per game — has scored 16 points or less.
In fact, after two dynamite performances after the Olympic break, averaging 30.5 points, she has gone Under her 23.5 scoring line in six straight games, which includes back-to-back games against the Dream.
On the other hand, the books may have handed you a bit of a gimme with Allisha Gray’s 3-point prop of 1.5. The Dream guard has been in a consistent groove from distance, hitting at least two triples in six straight.
Gray has also hit exactly three 3-pointers in all three games against the Mercury this season, hitting at a very efficient 50% clip.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dream vs Mercury odds
Dream vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Dream vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Dream vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta 2.5 (-106) | Phoenix -2.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +122 | Phoenix -150
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 (-110) | Under 160.5 (-110)
Dream vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta is 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 vs Phoenix.
- The Mercury are 9-7 at home this season.
- The Dream have cashed the Under in three of their last four.
- Phoenix has hit the Under in six of its last 10.
Dream vs Mercury trend
Atlanta’s Under record is 9-3-1 in its last 13 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mercury.
Dream vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PeachtreeTV, AZ Family Sports |
Dream vs Mercury latest injuries
Dream: Aerial Powers G (Out).
Mercury: Natasha Cloud G (Out); Charisma Osborne G (Out); Rebecca Allen G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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