WNBA bettors get a rubber match between the top two teams in the league when the Las Vegas Aces visit the New York Liberty at Barclays Center tonight.
This will be the fifth and final meeting between these league powers before the playoffs, not only serving as a potential WNBA Finals preview but the deciding game in a season series.
Las Vegas and New York have split their previous four matchups, including the Liberty winning the in-season Commissioner’s Cup Championship earlier this month. The Aces would exact revenge just a few days later with an 88-75 victory as 7.5-point home favorites on August 17.
The spread for this battle in Brooklyn is much tighter, as New York has won nine of its last 11 outings (that lone loss to the Aces) and Las Vegas closes out a four-game road trip after a one-sided loss in Washington on Saturday. This game will actually be the team’s 11th game in the past 22 days.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for the lone game on Monday’s board and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Aces at Liberty on August 28.
Aces vs Liberty best odds
Aces vs Liberty picks and predictions
Aces head coach Becky Hammon has a big-picture process when it comes to the 2023 WNBA season. Even in intense matchups like tonight’s visit to New York, the savvy coach is always thinking about what’s best for long-term success.
Tonight’s trip to the Big Apple is the final stop of a four-game road swing for Las Vegas and due to the Commissioner’s Cup Championship on August 15, this will be the Aces’ 11th game in a span of 22 days.
Hammon has admitted that her team is tired and that she’s pulled all on-court preparation in the past week just to give her players some much-needed downtime. Ever since the last two games versus New York, Hammon expanded her rotation and talked about protecting her players.
While this run-in with the Liberty is an important contest when it comes to which team finishes first in the standings — and holds home court in the finals — avoiding injuries and getting her team to the postseason at 100% is now the goal for Hammon.
New York is also playing its best basketball, as far as WNBA bettors are concerned. The Liberty struggled to live up to the early-season hype, with their revamped roster falling short of oddsmakers' expectations. However, the Liberty have gone from 9-16 against the spread in their first 25 games to 7-2 ATS over the last nine outings, owning a net rating of +19.4 in that span compared to just +6.9 prior to this run.
WNBA odds opened Las Vegas as big as a 2-point road chalk but the market has swung toward the Liberty, with some books dealing this spread with New York as a 1.5-point fave as of Monday morning. My WNBA power ratings place New York as a slim favorite as well.
As a fan, I’d love to see these two superpowers go toe-to-toe. But with the success the Liberty have had slowing down the Aces’ high-octane offense, Vegas looking at three days off after this schedule slog, and Hammon prioritizing playoff health, I’m siding with the home side in Brooklyn tonight.
My best bet: Liberty +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
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Aces vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread hit the board between Las Vegas -2 and -1 but the market has moved toward the home side, with some bookmakers moving as far as Liberty -1.5. Early Covers Consensus numbers show 57% of picks on New York. My WNBA power ratings produced a similar spread, forecasting a line of Liberty -0.66.
New York is back in the Barclays Center after a successful five-game road trip (six if you include the Commissioner’s Cup final), finishing 4-1 straight up (3-2 ATS) with that lone loss in Las Vegas on August 17.
The Liberty have exploited a smaller Aces interior in their recent meetings, with Vegas still playing without veteran center Candace Parker. Not only do the Aces miss Parker’s stability inside on defense but without her on the offensive end, New York has thrown extra bodies at MVP forward A’ja Wilson, forcing the ball to the outside.
The Aces have had some weird shooting results against the Liberty this season, watching their league-best shooting percentage vanish in two losses to New York. However, that touch was improved on August 17 and the Aces defense clamped down on the Liberty in the second half, giving up just 35 points and forcing 10 turnovers in those final 20 minutes.
Vegas not only takes on its most formidable foe Monday but battles the rigors of the road, closing out a four-game road trip that has them playing those contests in a span of seven days. The Aces showed little fight in a bad loss at Washington on Saturday, falling 78-62 as 10-point favorites with the Mystic getting their injury-plagued lineup back on the floor.
“We’re tired,” Las Vegas head coach Becky Hammon told the media, referencing the Aces’ compact schedule over the past three weeks.
Hammon has been extra cautious of her team’s health during this stint, expanding her rotation to help limit minutes for key players, eliminating practices entirely, and even canceling shootarounds to find rest spots for her team. This schedule crunch has threatened the Aces’ grasp on the WNBA’s No. 1 seed and home court in the finals.
As for tonight’s Over/Under total, it hit the board at 172 points and has climbed to as high as 174 at some operators.
The past three matchups between the Aces and Liberty have stayed Under the closing total, including the 88-75 final score from August 17 which stayed well short of the 175.5-point O/U total. This current number is the shortest total of their five head-to-head meetings.
There’s a ton of offensive firepower on both rosters with the Aces and Liberty near the top of most scoring statistics but each side has shown off its defensive prowess in those past encounters. Given the slog of the Aces' current calendar and the intensity of these non-conference rivals, tonight’s game should have a playoff atmosphere.
Aces vs Liberty betting trend to know
The Liberty are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Liberty.
Aces vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Monday, August 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Aces vs Liberty key injuries
Aces: Candace Parker C (Out)
Liberty: Marine Johannes G (Questionable)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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