The New York Liberty face a stiff challenge from the Las Vegas Aces as the two squads square off on Wednesday, July 6. The Liberty are still trying to build a level of consistent play, while the Aces remain one of the league's hottest teams.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Aces like Las Vegas to cover the spread against this less experienced New York team.
Liberty vs Aces odds
The Aces are -10 to -10.5 favorites at most books. The total has been set at 169.5.
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Liberty vs Aces predictions
Predictions made on 7/6/2022 at 1:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Wednesday, July 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS Sports
Liberty vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: Rebecca Allen (Questionable), Sami Whitcomb (Questionable), Betnijah Laney (Out).
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Liberty are 0-8 ATS in the last eight meetings in Las Vegas. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.
Liberty vs Aces picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Las Vegas Aces sit at the top of the Western Conference with a sterling 15-6 record, as well as owning the league's best offensive rating at 106.4. Their new offense continues to pay dividends as they play to their team's unique strengths while also embracing the principles of the pace-and-space era.
Whether considering offense or defense, diversity is a strength. While being able to win in multiple ways always gains prominence in the playoffs, it’s still applicable to the regular season. Unlike the Liberty, the Aces can beat you in a multitude of ways. While they’ve gone to great lengths to update their offense and emphasize the perimeter shot more, they still have A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young, who can more than happily beat you at the rim or in the mid range. Wilson has a combination of agility and skill level on the block that the ground-bound Liberty bigs will have trouble defending against.
The Liberty, meanwhile, are 8-12 but aren’t the roadkill they were to begin the year either. Though the personnel is largely the same, they hardly resemble the squad that lost seven straight near the beginning of the season. Sabrina Ionescu was just named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month and is well on her way to being a perennial All-Star.
While Sabrina has been incredible, it pales in comparison to the play of Kelsey Plum this season. It would be difficult to overstate the leap that Plum has taken this summer. The all-time scoring leader in Division I women's basketball is up to 20 points per game and 42.2% from three. Despite playing beside the 2020 MVP in A’ja Wilson, Plum has seen her odds to win WNBA MVP rise to third overall amid her stellar play.
The Aces are not unlike an improved, more experienced version of the Liberty, with similar principles better executed and way more talent. It’s a big line but I like them to cover it.
Prediction: Aces -10.0 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
This is an exceptionally high total for this matchup. While these two teams are average-to-above on defense by rating, the Liberty are the third-worst offense in the W.
The Liberty lead the WNBA in 3-point attempts per game but are near the bottom in points in the paint. While they’re fully capable of getting hot and helping push this to the Over, they’re so exclusively jump-shot reliant that, more often than not, that proves to be a bad bet. The Aces also seem well suited personnel-wise to track their shooters around screens and force them to create in the paint, where they’re not as effective.
I trust the Aces offense in this one, but I don't believe New York will score enough to cash the Over.
Prediction: Under 169.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
These are both offenses that rely on sharpshooters on the perimeter to spread teams out and open the paint for their other players to drive and attack in space. At least they both do that in theory. In practice, the Liberty don’t manage to put much pressure on the rim. While the Aces are fourth in free throw attempts per game, a useful stand-in for aggressiveness at the basket, the Liberty are dead last.
So, while Ionescu and Marine Johannes are outstanding shooters, New York doesn’t capitalize nearly enough on the gravity they create. That stands in stark contrast to the Aces, who until this season, were devoted almost exclusively to attacking the paint on every possession to the detriment of their 3-point shooting. New York’s track record in Las Vegas is also fairly damning, as the Liberty are 0-8 ATS in the last eight meetings there.
Now that Becky Hammond is running the Aces, their attack has achieved a superb balance between the paint and the perimeter, which this Liberty team will struggle to keep up with.
Pick: Aces -10.0 (-110 at Caesars)
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