After falling behind 2-0 to the New York Liberty in the WNBA semifinals, the Las Vegas Aces held on to fight another day with a victory in Friday’s Game 3.
After picking New York to win on Friday and getting burned, I’m going back to the Liberty on Sunday. My Liberty vs. Aces predictions like New York to cover on the road once again, so read my WNBA picks to see why you should take the Liberty and the points on October 6.
Liberty vs Aces predictions
My best bet
Liberty +3 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
I picked a New York Liberty victory and clean sweep for Friday’s showdown in Nevada, and that simply didn’t pan out. New York suffered a 14-point loss, and the Las Vegas Aces showed some signs of life after dropping the first two games of the series on the road.
But New York played an uncharacteristically bad game, and I’m betting on the better team for this Sunday soiree.
The Liberty shot just 38.8% from the floor in Friday’s loss, down significantly from the 46.1% the team is shooting in the playoffs. The Liberty lost the turnover battle 12-9, but New York surrendered 13 points off those turnovers compared to just six for Las Vegas.
The Liberty got bodied in the paint, surrendering 42 points there compared to just 28 scored on Las Vegas. After scoring brilliantly through the first two games of the series, Sabrina Ionescu was held in check. She and Breanna Stewart combined to go 8-for-24 with just 23 points.
The Aces used a 21-6 third quarter to swing momentum after halftime and never looked back. The Liberty, however, outscored the Aces by one point through the other three quarters. Despite inefficient shooting, poor interior defense and problems with ball security, the Liberty were very much in this game most of the way.
New York — and its two high-scoring stars — surely won’t play this poorly again, and a bounce-back on Sunday will mean a victory or at the very least a closely-contested affair that comes down to the wire.
The Liberty lost back-to-back games only once in the regular season, and it happened way back on May 23 and May 25. The Liberty only lost one game by double-digits in the regular season, and Friday’s loss represents the second-worst loss of 2024.
I got burned on Liberty moneyline on Friday, so I’m going with the safer option and taking the points. The best odds can be found at bet365, where we can get this as long as -105.
Liberty vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty +3
Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 assists
Over 166.5
Chelsea Gray suffered a fractured foot in Game 3 of the 2023 WNBA Finals against the Liberty, and that injury cost her Game 4 and the first 12 games of the 2024 campaign. She took some time to shake off the rust, but Gray is back to her old self at the right time.
She finished the season with her lowest assist average (4.9) since 2017, but over the last six seasons, she averaged 5.9 dimes. That’s the same amount of assists she’s averaged across her last 12 outings, and she’s hit the Over eight times in that span. She’s cashed this prop in four of her last five overall and four of five against the Liberty this season.
Both of these teams have been racking up points throughout this series, and the Over has hit in three straight. The Liberty and Aces have combined for point totals of 164, 172, and 176, and the total has understandably moved up to 166.5. New York has hit the Over in each of its last four overall, and Las Vegas is 3-0-1 in that span.
The Liberty have hit the Over in each of their last six semifinals matchups, and the Aces are 5-1-1 across their last seven semis. I’m betting on another high-scoring matchup today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Aces odds
Liberty vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: New York +3.5 | Las Vegas -3.5
- Moneyline: New York +138 | Las Vegas -159
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
Liberty vs Aces series odds
- Liberty: -340
- Aces: +270
Liberty vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty are 4-1 straight up in the 2024 playoffs while the Aces are 3-2.
- New York is 22-23 to the Under this season, but the Liberty are 4-1 to the Over in the 2024 playoffs.
- Las Vegas is 20-24-1 to the Under on the season overall, but the Aces are 3-1-1 to the Over in the postseason.
Liberty vs Aces trend
The Liberty won five straight against the Aces straight-up this season before Friday’s loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.
Liberty vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Liberty vs Aces latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Aces: Kiah Stokes (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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