Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever will try to get a home win against perhaps the best team in the WNBA as they host the New York Liberty on Saturday afternoon.
The Liberty (17-3) have the best record in the WNBA and are on a five-game winning streak as the WNBA odds see them as large favorites over the Fever (8-13), who have won five of their last eight to move into playoff position.
I’ll look at what happens when the league’s top offense gets another shot at the worst defense in the WNBA in my Liberty vs. Fever predictions and WNBA picks — including a Caitlin Clark prop bet — for July 6.
Liberty vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Liberty -9 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
For bettors who have been following the New York Liberty this season, two things have become clear. First, they are likely the best team in the WNBA, as they have the best point differential (+9.5) and best record in the league. But secondly, New York has consistently failed to cover as a double-digit favorite against weaker teams this year.
Thankfully for anyone who wants to bet on the Liberty today, they are only favored by nine points. And when bookmakers have been willing to give New York reasonable lines to cover, they’ve come through, going 7-2 against a spread when they are favored by 9.5 points or less.
That alone isn’t enough to make us bet on the Liberty today, but we’ve already seen them have their way with the Indiana Fever three times this season. In two of those games, including one in Indiana, New York has won by over 30 points. Even in the relatively close game on May 18 in New York, the Liberty came out ahead by 11 in a 91-80 victory.
The biggest issue for the Fever in this matchup is the fact that they simply have no answer for the multitude of weapons that the Liberty can bring to the table on the offensive end. Indiana has the worst defensive rating in the league at 108.9, while the Liberty lead the WNBA in offensive rating at 108.2. Breanna Stewart is torching Indiana for 22.7 points per game this season, with the Fever seemingly having no answers for her post play and her ability to stretch the floor.
The Liberty have scored at least 91 points in each meeting against the Fever this year, and today should be no exception. The Fever have no way to keep up, so I’m taking the Liberty to cover.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 assists (-145 at DraftKings)
My analysis
While Caitlin Clark has put up solid scoring and rebounding numbers in her rookie season, her biggest impact on the Fever has been as a facilitator and a ball handler. And while some of that impact has been negative — her 5.6 turnovers per game lead the WNBA by a massive margin — there’s no denying that she’s also among the league leaders in assists at 7.1 per game.
Lately, Clark has been padding those numbers, dishing out 11 or more assists in three of her last four games, and getting at least seven assists in each of her last five outings. With Clark continuing to develop, improve, and adapt to the professional level of play, I fully expect her to continue that streak against the Liberty on Saturday.
Liberty vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -9
Under 171.5
Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 assists
While I think the Liberty offense will carry them to cover, there are other factors to consider as we build a same-game parlay for this afternoon’s game.
For instance, if we look at the first three games between these teams this season, none have ended with a total higher than 172. With the total at 171.5 today, the Under is the smart pick, especially if we’re looking at another New York blowout where the reserves will get lots of playing time in the fourth quarter.
I’ll also throw in my bet on Clark to get Over 6.5 assists to complete an SGP with a ton of value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Fever odds
Liberty vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: New York -8 (-110) | Indiana +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -360 | Indiana +280
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 (-110) | Under 168.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty have gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight meetings with the Fever.
- Indiana is 10-8 ATS overall this season, while New York has gone 8-11 ATS in 2024.
- The Over holds a 14-4 record in Fever games this year, and also has the 11-8 advantage when the Liberty play this season.
- New York has played to an average total of 164.9 points per game this season. Indiana’s average total this year is 168.2 points.
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Liberty vs Fever trend
The Liberty are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in which they were favored by less than 10 points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Fever.
Liberty vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Liberty vs Fever latest injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Fever: Temi Fagbenle F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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