Just 48 hours after Sabrina Ionescu’s iconic game-winner, the champagne is on ice for the New York Liberty, who can clinch their first-ever WNBA championship in tonight’s Game 4 against the Minnesota Lynx.
Minnesota has done a lot of things right in this series but is now on the ropes, and my WNBA picks point to New York getting the job done on both ends of the floor — including another flashy Breanna Stewart outing.
Looking for more action on the game? Zak Hanshew has you covered in his Liberty vs. Lynx predictions.
Liberty vs Lynx WNBA Finals Game 4 props
- Stewart Over 21.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
- Laney-Hamilton Over 3.5 rebounds (+115 at BetMGM)
- Collier Under 33.5 PRA (-125 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 10-18 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Liberty vs Lynx props
Prop bet #1: Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu’s clutch 3-pointer naturally stole the Game 3 headlines, but it was Breanna Stewart who clawed the New York Liberty back into the contest.
When the roof was caving in on New York, Stewart answered the call again and again on the way to 30 points on 9-for-20 shooting — and the Minnesota Lynx had no answers.
With the Lynx clamping down on Ionescu’s 3-point looks, there’s been an even bigger burden on Stewart in these Finals, but she’s been willing to jack up shots.
Her efficiency has dropped off a cliff (41% from the field in this postseason run), but she delivers when New York needs her most, including a 21-point effort in Game 2 to level the series.
The Liberty have been vocal about wanting to wrap up the title tonight and avoid a high-pressure decider back at Barclays Center — and that kind of urgency should translate to a prolific outing for Stewart.
Prop bet #2: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Over 3.5 rebounds
When you think about New York's key contributors, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton can sometimes be forgotten. Still, she’s been a crucial player in this series and has embraced the defensive assignment on Courtney Williams.
That important assignment is part of the reason for an uptick in Laney-Hamilton’s minutes, and she logged a playoff-high 35 in Game 3.
A bigger workload opens up more possibilities in the props market, adding extra value to the Over on Laney-Hamilton’s rebounds tonight. She grabbed five boards in Wednesday’s thriller and finished with at least four rebounds in five of her last seven contests.
Though Laney-Hamilton’s offensive outbursts are typically fleeting, her gritty style of play is perfect for this grueling Finals series, and she’s been willing to crash the glass against bigger players.
It would be no surprise if the Game 4 total trends a little lower than Wednesday’s 80-77 scoreline and Laney-Hamilton continues to be in the right place at the right time for loose balls.
Prop bet #3: Napheesa Collier Under 33.5 points+rebounds+assists
Napheesa Collier has juggled a superhuman workload in this series: draining jump shots, setting up teammates, crashing the glass, and protecting the basket. But there’s a limit even for her.
Collier played all 40 minutes in midweek and still fell just short of this O/U line, despite producing another do-it-all performance. She didn’t even reach this number in the Game 1 overtime win where she logged 43 minutes.
Though the Lynx forward made nine of her 22 shots in Game 3, she had to work hard for most of those buckets against the imposing New York frontcourt.
There’s a case for Collier calling her own number even more here given the elimination stakes, but I expect the Liberty to crowd her again and live with Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton getting cleaner looks on the perimeter.
It’s also worth noting Collier had four double-digit rebounding games in the last round against the Connecticut Sun but hasn’t had any in the Finals.
As well as she’s playing, sign me up for the Under.
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