Liberty vs Lynx WNBA Finals Game 3 Prop Bets: Following Sabrina's Lead

Prop bet #1: Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 points

+106 at FanDuel

After serving up some magic moments through the first two rounds, Sabrina Ionescu has had a tougher time taking over against this Minnesota Lynx defense. Still, it’s only a matter of time before she makes her mark on this series.

Sure, the 8-for-26 Game 1 clunker was a surprise, but Sabrina was more efficient in Sunday’s clash, and I’m jumping on this Over at slight plus-money odds.

The Liberty will need Ionescu’s A-game to win on the road, and I expect her to be aggressive to relieve some of the pressure on Breanna Stewart, who’s had a difficult week off the court and has shot 13-for-39 so far in the Finals.

I’m also trusting in Ionescu’s body of work in the 2024 playoffs. She’s scored 19+ points in five of New York’s eight games, and she’s the type of bucket-getter who will relish a hostile crowd in Minnesota.

She's knocked down 44% of her triples in these playoffs, and I see the visitors trying to get her going early tonight.

Prop bet #2: Bridget Carleton Over 8.5 points

-110 at BetMGM

It’s fair to say we haven’t seen the best of Bridget Carleton in her last three outings, with the Minnesota forward shooting just 6-for-20 from the field in that span.

However, it’s easy to forget her bright start to this playoff run, which included 12+ points in four of the Lynx’s first five contests and a 17-point performance in Game 1 against the Sun. It’s no coincidence those flashier shooting nights came at Target Center — and I’m picking Carleton to have a bigger say in Game 3 on her home floor.

With Napheesa Collier continuing to drag New York Liberty defenders into the paint, the hosts should be able to shrug off the rough 30% 3-point mark from last time out. Carleton tends to be a big part of any prolific Minnesota shooting explosion.

The Carleton points prop is always going to be very dependent on 3-pointers, and she at least knocked down two triples on Sunday. This Lynx offense has an extra dimension when she’s dialed in from downtown, and I’m predicting a bounceback effort tonight.

Prop bet #3: Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds

-125 at BetMGM

There are some ferocious rebounders in this series, and Alanna Smith is doing her best to help Napheesa Collier on the glass against Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart, but that’s no easy task.

Smith is giving up significant size whenever she’s matched up against Jones, and she finished with just two boards in Game 2 as the Liberty won the rebounding battle 34-27.  With Smith posting three or fewer boards in four of her last five contests and her minutes typically in the high 20s or low 30s, I’m fading her rebounding prop tonight.

Bridget Carleton and Courtney Williams combined to sweep up 10 rebounds on Sunday, and we could see more of the same here as Collier and Smith focus on boxing out New York’s bruising frontcourt.

To her credit, Smith has stayed out of foul trouble so far in this series, but she can go through stretches where she has minimal impact on the box score — and I’m wagering on her having a quiet night on the boards in Game 3.