The New York Liberty surrendered a 15-point lead in the final five minutes of Game 1 to ultimately drop that contest in overtime to the Minnesota Lynx. New York hasn’t looked back since, and after two straight wins, the Liberty are knocking on the door of a championship.
I’m not confident in the spread or the point total here, so my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions will target three player props, including a combo prop for New York’s superstar forward. Read my WNBA picks to see why you should target a huge performance from Breanna Stewart, and be sure to read our Liberty vs. Lynx prop picks!
Liberty vs Lynx predictions
Who will win Liberty vs Lynx Game 4?
The Liberty are the better team, and they’ve been the better team for most of the regular season and the majority of the Finals.
Minnesota was a thorn in New York’s side all year, but the Liberty are locked in and ready to finish the job. Minnesota completed its dramatic Game 1 win with a go-ahead bucket from Napheesa Collier in the waning seconds of overtime, and New York got a similar result in Game 3 as Sabrina Ionescu nailed a logo three to put her team ahead for good in the contest and go ahead 2-1 in the series.
"I watched over that clip, obviously, a few times to relive it," Ionescu commented. "But now I've turned the page and can't stay on that high too long because the job's not finished. We've got one more game.”
Ionescu’s thoughts reflect the attitude of her teammates that they can’t rest on their laurels ahead of a pivotal Game 4. Mamba mentality all the way.
My best bet
Breanna Stewart Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Napheesa Collier was the play in Game 3, and she delivered a strong line as expected. The Minnesota Lynx will have their backs against the wall in a win-or-go-home Game 4, and I expect Collier to be big yet again.
But she’s not the play for Friday, though. I’m targeting a New York Liberty superstar to deliver the team its first championship in franchise history.
Breanna Stewart’s points + rebounds + assists prop can be found at 34.5 across multiple featured sportsbooks for a little more juice, but we can get the longest odds at bet365 for just one more PRA. That’s where I’ll be locking in this wager.
Stewart finished with 30 PRAs in Game 1, 34 in Game 2, and a monstrous 42 in Game 3. The two-time Finals MVP understands what it takes to close the deal at the end of the season, and her Game 3 performance reflected that sense of urgency. Stewart surely understands that anything can happen in Game 5, and the Liberty won’t want to face their nemesis in that scenario.
Stewart is averaging 33.5 PRAs in the playoffs, but she’s averaged 39.1 PRAs in seven games against the Lynx in 2024 and hit the Over five times.
The Liberty hold an advantage in the Finals for the first time in franchise history, and Stewart knows that the team needs to close this one out while they’re hot. I’ll confidently bet the Over.
Liberty vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Breanna Stewart Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists
Courtney Williams Over 5.5 assists
Sabrina Ionescu Over 4.5 rebounds
I’m loading up on player props tonight because this do-or-die Game 4 could be full of surprises with the point total and spread. In addition to Stewart’s combo prop, I’m nabbing Courtney Williams’ assists line at this lowly line.
Williams averaged precisely 5.5 dimes per contest for the 2024 campaign, so a slightly above-average performance will suffice to hit the Over here. Williams has averaged 6.2 assists in the 2024 playoffs and gone Over in six of 10 appearances.
In seven games against the Liberty this season, Williams has averaged 6.1 dimes, hit the Over three times, and posted at least five assists six times. Just to sweeten this prop, she’s averaged 5.9 assists at home compared to 5.2 on the road.
I took a chance on a Sabrina Ionescu combo prop in her last outing, but tonight, I’m targeting an under-the-radar prop for the Game 3 hero.
Minnesota has been absolutely crushed on the boards in this series, but that’s nothing new. The Lynx surrendered the fifth-most rebounds to opponents in the regular season, and they’ve given up the third-most boards in the playoffs thus far.
Ionescu has averaged 4.9 rebounds per game in seven matchups with Minnesota this season and hit the Over four times. That includes twice in three tries in the Finals and a 10-rebound effort in the Commissioner’s Cup. Ionescu averaged 3.9 rebounds per game at home but a healthy 5.0 on the road this season.
Known most notably for her scoring and three-point shooting, Ionescu is a capable rebounder, so this is a sneaky-good play to round out our three-leg parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Lynx odds
Liberty vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: New York -3 | Minnesota +3
- Moneyline: New York -155 | Minnesota +130
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
Liberty vs Lynx series odds
- Liberty: -800
- Lynx: +550
Liberty vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx improved to 32-18-1 ATS by covering in Game 3, and Minnesota has covered in five of its last seven overall.
- The Liberty dropped to 24-25-1 ATS after failing to cover in Game 3, though the team is 6-0 ATS across its last six following an ATS loss.
- Minnesota is 22-27-2 to the Under this season, and the Lynx have hit the Under in five of their last seven Finals appearances.
- New York hit the Under in 24 of 50 games in 2024, and the Liberty are 1-4 to the Under across their last five Finals contests.
Liberty vs Lynx trend
Across all games in the W this season, road favorites commanded a dominant 80-28 record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Lynx.
Liberty vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Liberty vs Lynx latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Lynx: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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