The New York Liberty head to the desert to face the Phoenix Mercury tonight in a spot they haven’t been in for almost two months: coming off a loss.
The WNBA odds are confident New York can bounce back from that rare blip, but Natasha Cloud will do whatever she can to prevent it from happening. I explain how in my Liberty vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks for August 26.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Natasha Cloud Over 9.5 assists + rebounds (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Phoenix Mercury are playing in front of a friendly crowd for just the second time since July 11, with the pre and post-break schedule putting Phoenix on the road for seven of its last eight games.
That’s a big deal to the Mercury, who see a major swing in offensive effectiveness depending on home/away splits (98.8 offensive rating on the road compared to league-best 108.3 at home), and it couldn't hold more true for guard Natasha Cloud.
Cloud’s playmaking gets a boost in Phoenix, with her assists leaping from six per road game to almost eight at home. Her scoring has taken a hit due to this road-heavy slate, but she’s finding other ways to contribute.
Cloud recorded seven assists and five rebounds in 30 minutes, followed by eight boards and two dimes over 38 minutes in two straight games in Atlanta last week.
WNBA prop projections call for a combined 10.5 assists + rebounds from Cloud in tonight’s showdown with the New York Liberty.
Those forecasts, as well as the 9.5 Over/Under on the combo prop (which opened 10.5 Over -125), are tempered due to that road-heavy schedule and aren’t accounting enough for the massive change in output the Mercury sees when playing at home — a near nine-point surge on 46.7% shooting.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Natasha Cloud Over 5.5 assists
Cloud Over 3.5 rebounds
Over 166
Cloud’s projections call for six assists, and with the Mercury’s offensive improvements at home, that ceiling could be much higher.
The 5-foot-11 guard has a nose for the ball, and her rebounding projections call for more than four boards.
Phoenix puts up almost nine more points at home compared to on the road, and New York is out to jump start its offense after a season-low 64 points in the loss to the Sun.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York -4.5 (-120) | Phoenix +4.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: New York -225 | Phoenix +180
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 (-110) | Under 162.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as low as -4.5 on the road, coming off that bad loss to Connecticut this weekend. That spread has since jumped to -5.5 with early on the visitor.
- The total started as low as 162.5 points and has spiked to as high as 166 O/U as of Monday morning.
- The Liberty could have standout guard Betnijah Laney-Hamilton back in limited capacity tonight. She's been out since July 6 with a knee injury, but New York head coach Sandy Brondello was targeting Monday as a possible return.
Liberty vs Mercury trend
The Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
Liberty vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 8-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WNBA League Pass |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton G (Questionable).
Mercury: Rebecca Allen F (Out), Charisma Osborne G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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