The New York Liberty will begin their bid for the franchise’s first WNBA championship as they visit the retooled Washington Mystics on Tuesday night.
The Liberty finished 32-8 last season, reaching the WNBA Finals before falling to the Las Vegas Aces 3-1. That included a first-round two-game sweep over the Mystics, who went 19-21 in the regular season.
New York has big ambitions this season, but our Liberty vs. Mystics prediction wonders if they’ll cover a double-digit spread right off the bat. Read on for May 14’s best WNBA picks.
Liberty vs Mystics predictions
My best bet
Mystics +11 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Liberty are coming into 2024 with most of the same parts that made them a superteam in 2023. Defending MVP Breanna Stewart is back after putting up 23 points and 9.3 rebounds per game last year. New York also returns sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu (44.8% from 3-point range), as well as starters Jonquel Jones, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, and Courtney Vandersloot, giving the Liberty one of the best starting units in the league.
But there are still questions about New York’s bench depth. That was a problem for the Liberty in 2023, and now they’re without Marine Johannes, who was their top bench scorer last season.
That lack of depth showed in an inability to regularly blow out even the weaker teams in the WNBA last season. It’s not that the Liberty couldn’t comfortably beat teams, but they only had 16 wins by double digits over the course of the 40-game regular season, a surprisingly low number for a team that was frequently favored by 12 points or more against overmatched competition.
One of the teams that gave New York trouble last year was Washington, which opened the 2023 season by upsetting the Liberty 80-64. It’s important to note that this year’s Mystics team is very different from those in recent seasons, as Washington will now be playing without superstar Elena Delle Donne. The superstar forward scored 16.7 points per game for the Mystics last year, and is a difficult piece to replace. Natasha Cloud (12.7 ppg) is also gone from last season’s roster.
While that’s going to make this a tough season for Washington, the team isn’t without talent. Brittney Sykes (15.9 ppg) returns to lead the team, while Shakira Austin (10.0 ppg) and draft pick Aaliyah Edwards (17.6 ppg for UConn last season) should provide a solid defensive frontcourt pairing — something the Mystics will need to slow down Stewart a bit tonight.
The Mystics have made strong defensive play their identity in recent seasons, and while the loss of Delle Donne hurts them overall, it could help on defense, where they can now deploy healthier and younger options in the post. That approach should also help Washington keep things close yet again against the Liberty tonight. I’m taking the Mystics to cover.
Liberty vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Mystics +11
Under 164
Breanna Stewart 20+ points
One reason why I like the Mystics to cover tonight is that I’m expecting a lower-scoring game in the regular season opener, as neither team will be sharp — and the Mystics, in particular, will be looking to play at a slower pace with their new lineup. That’s why I’ll be adding a bet on the Under to my same-game parlay.
That doesn’t mean nobody will score tonight, however. Stewart is the defending WNBA MVP and scored at least 20 points in six of her last eight regular season games in 2023, something I’m predicting she does again tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Mystics odds
Liberty vs Mystics live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: New York -12 (106) | Washington +12 (-108)
- Moneyline: New York -754 | Washington +581
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-101) | Under 164.5 (-115)
Liberty vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty opened tonight’s game as a 13.5-point favorite, but the consensus line has come down to New York -11. You can find -105 on the Liberty or -108 on the Mystics +11 by shopping around.
- New York finished 2023 with a 19-21 record against the spread, while Washington put up a similar 18-21-1 ATS mark.
- Most books opened the total at 165.5 points. The consensus Over/Under currently sits at 163.5.
- The Under went 24-15-1 in Mystics games last season, while the Over held a 23-17 edge when the Liberty played.
Liberty vs Mystics trend
The Mystics went 4-0 ATS against the Liberty in the 2023 regular season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mystics.
Liberty vs Mystics game info
| Location: | Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 14, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 3 |
Liberty vs Mystics latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
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