Wednesday’s WNBA schedule is a one-game showcase in the Eastern Conference, with the resilient New York Liberty visiting the first-place Connecticut Sun.
Both teams are coming off losses, but Connecticut returns to the Mohegan Sun Arena where it’s dropped just two home stands on the season (7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS). New York was the hottest team in the East to start June but has lost two of its last three contests and sits as a road 10.5-point underdog tonight.
Here are our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun odds
Connecticut hit the board as a 9.5-point home chalk and that spread got run through -10 and to -10.5 with early action on the host team. However, FanDuel sportsbooks are still dealing the Sun at -9.5 (-112) as of Wednesday morning. The total opened at 157.5 points and has shifted to 158.5 with early play on the Over.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Liberty vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 6/22/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Wednesday, June 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Liberty vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: Rebecca Allen G (Out), Betnijah Laney G (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby F (Out).
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-3 in the Liberty’s last 10 games as road underdogs. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The double-digit spread may seem a little much considering these clubs split their first two meetings in 2022. The Sun, however, won the most recent date on May 17 by 27 points and are a tough out on their own court, with Connecticut owning an average margin of +10.7 points inside Mohegan Sun Arena.
That said, the Liberty are a much different team than the one the Sun battled twice last month, starting June with a 4-1 straight up and against the spread mark before stumbling a bit in their last three games. In its defense, New York has faced a stiffer schedule in that span, losing to the last two teams to win the WNBA title — Chicago and Seattle — while knocking off a Washington squad that was without star Elena Delle Donne.
The Liberty started the year with only one win (over the Sun in the season opener) in their first eight games (2-6 ATS) before catching fire in June.
Besides the incredible play of Sabrina Ionescu in June (20.8 pts, 7.3 ast, 7.0 rebs), a couple of factors have come into play to spark this turnaround, including trimming the turnovers from 19.3 per game in May to only 12.9 in June. This has helped N.Y. tighten up on defense as well, with the club’s advanced rating slimming from 103.2 last month to 97.9 over the past eight outings.
Connecticut is right there with the Liberty in defensive rating and generates a lot of offense off turnovers, forcing 16.1 giveaways a game and exchanging those mistakes for a league-high 19.5 points. In the two matchups with New York in May, the Sun generated 62 total points off turnovers — easy buckets that won’t be there tonight.
Instead, Connecticut will run into a much more cohesive New York squad on both ends of the floor. Ionescu is ascending to superstar status but is also getting solid support from Natasha Howard, Marine Johannès, 6-foot-10 center Han Xu, and added defensive depth with the return of 6-foot-2 guard DiDi Richards.
Prediction: Liberty +10.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
A big part of the Liberty’s defensive transformation has been a downshift in pace over the past month. New York owns a pace rating of 94.13 in June, which ranks second slowest in the league in that stretch, and has helped produce a 3-5 Over/Under count in Liberty games heading into Wednesday.
The Sun are great at defending home court, owning a methodical pace of 95.27 as a host while boasting a defensive rating of 95.7 in Uncasville. Connecticut allows only 76 points per game at home and went 1-3 Over/Under during its recent four-game run in Mohegan Sun Arena.
The Sun are also very good at moving their feet and winning position on defense, sending foes to the foul line an average of just 15.2 times per homestand.
The Liberty aren’t the most aggressive attack, generating only 16.8 personal fouls from opponents and getting the stripe a mere 11.6 times per contest. New York was especially docile in the loss to Seattle on Sunday, drawing only 11 whistles and going 2-for-5 from the line.
With two plodding paces, improved defenses, and little scoring with the clock stopped, we’re going Under this total on Wednesday night.
Prediction: Under 158.5 (-110 at Bet365)
Best bet
There have only been a handful of double-digit spreads in the WNBA this season (nine to be exact, with big underdogs going 5-4 ATS) and most of those felt just. This one does not, at least based on the Liberty’s quality of play in June and the high level of opponent they’ve battled the past three games.
New York has had to fend off its share of stars over that span and faces another in 6-foot-6 forward Jonquel Jones tonight.
Jones dropped 15 and 13 points on New York in its previous two matchups and draws the attention of this rejuvenated N.Y. defense. The Liberty just did good work against Seattle standout Breanna Stewart, who was 7 of 16 shooting for 18 points, but drew aggressive doubles (leading to three turnovers) and had to make many hard shots.
Connecticut’s offense has wobbled a bit in the past four games. Outside of 105 points vs. Atlanta, the Sun scored under their season average in the other three contests and watched their offensive rating dip from 108.8 to 101.9 in that span, including a dismal 63-point performance on 22 of 60 shooting (36.7%) in the loss to Washington on Sunday.
The Sun are good and likely win this game, but not good enough to pull away from this 10.5-point spread.
Pick: Liberty +10.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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