Ever since this star-studded New York Liberty core came together, the WNBA title has been the prime obsession, and they’re clear favorites heading into Game 1 of the Finals tonight against the Minnesota Lynx.
It’s a quick turnaround for Minnesota after an emotional Game 5 semifinal win on Tuesday, but my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks for Game 1 player props lean into some big offensive numbers occurring at Barclays Center.
Lynx vs Liberty Game 1 props
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 23.5 points + assists (-106 at FanDuel)
- Courtney Williams Over 11.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)
- Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 made threes (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 10-10 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Lynx vs Liberty props
Prop bet #1: Sabrina Ionescu Over 23.5 points + assists
The New York Liberty’s path to a first ever WNBA championship starts with more magic from Sabrina Ionescu, who’s been locked in throughout these playoffs and is giving off major “unfinished business” energy.
Ionescu responded to a rare dud outing in Game 3 against the Las Vegas Aces with a bounce-back 22-point effort to punch New York’s ticket to the Finals. That was just the latest installment in a sublime postseason run for Sabrina.
No one has done more than Ionescu to make amends for the Liberty’s Finals loss last year. She’s scored 21 points or more in four of her past five outings, and a repeat of that production would almost cash in this prop on points alone.
There’s been consistency in her playmaking too. She’s tallied five or more assists in five of her six contests in the 2024 playoffs, and there’s no shortage of capable scorers around her.
The Minnesota Lynx will have some counters ready and will surely have taken note of what worked (and didn’t work) for the Aces in the last round. But the New York offense should run through Ionescu regardless, and she’s 20-for-43 on 3-pointers this postseason. I love the Over here.
Prop bet #2: Courtney Williams Over 11.5 points
Courtney Williams’ arrival in Minnesota has been a big factor in the team’s revival this year, and she’s embraced the playoff spotlight in a major way.
Williams is no stranger to the Finals stage, having been here with the Connecticut Sun in 2019 and 2022, and she clearly relished the win-or-go-home vibe of Game 5 this week.
She poured in 24 points in that decider on 9-for-16 shooting and the volume should be there again tonight. Williams has had 10 or more field goal attempts in six of her last seven games.
The veteran guard got better as the semifinal series went along and eased past this points prop O/U line in three of her last four outings while averaging 15 ppg across the five games against the Sun.
As the energizer for Minnesota, Williams needs to push the pace to prevent the offense getting bogged down. If anyone can still thrive 48 hours after a grueling do-or-die matchup, it’s her.
I’m banking on the Liberty’s defensive schemes being focused on making life tough for Napheesa Collier, and that should open the door for the Lynx’s other scorers to thrive in Game 1.
Prop bet #3: Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 made threes
Surrounded by so many big-name performers, Leonie Fiebich’s contributions for New York can sometimes be overlooked. But the Liberty rookie has made a real splash this year, and she’s going to have an important role again in the Finals.
Fiebich has added extra shooting to the New York starting lineup, and I’m predicting another efficient night from downtown in Game 1.
She knocked down 3-pointers at a 43% clip during the regular season but has been even deadlier in the playoffs, with a 59% mark. Fiebich was on target with her only triple try in Game 4 against Las Vegas, though that snapped a streak of five straight contests with at least two made 3-pointers.
To some extent, the Lynx are going to have to pick their poison in this series, with Ionescu’s perimeter threat and Breanna Stewart setting up in the paint. That could make Fiebich an afterthought at times for Minnesota, and I’m trusting the fearless rookie to stay hot from beyond the arc.
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