The Minnesota Lynx emerged from a hard-fought, five-game semifinal series victory over the Connecticut Sun to face the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals.
The Liberty lost in the 2023 Finals but ran through the 2024 regular season with the best record. New York’s biggest irritant was Minnesota, and my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions like the away team to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Finals.
Read my WNBA picks to see why you should back the Lynx and take the points. And for more analysis, check out Tom Oldfield's Lynx vs. Liberty props.
Lynx vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Lynx +6 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The New York Liberty finished the regular season with the best record in basketball at 32-8, but two of those losses came at the hands of the Minnesota Lynx.
Minnesota was the only team to beat New York multiple times, and the Lynx actually won three times against the Liberty if you count the Commissioner’s Cup victory. The Liberty have home court, but the Lynx won three times at Barclays Center this season.
While New York’s 32-8 record was tops in the W, Minnesota was just two games back. Both teams were stellar during the regular season, and they share a lot in common.
During the 2024 campaign, Minnesota was second in points, and New York was third. The Lynx were fourth in turnovers forced, and the Liberty were fifth. The Lynx were first in 3-point percentage allowed, while the Liberty were third. Minnesota’s 8.1 net rating was third, and New York’s 12.1 net rating was best.
New York had the best offensive rating and second-best defensive rating, while Minnesota had the fourth-best offensive rating and second-best defensive rating.
All of those numbers paint a picture of two teams very close in a number of key metrics and very evenly matched. The Liberty have been on the warpath this season and ran through the playoffs with just one loss, but the Lynx are battle-tested, and they’re a team that consistently gave the Liberty fits. To sweeten the deal, the Liberty are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 at home.
The 6-point spread feels far too high, given how well the Lynx have played overall and especially given how well they’ve played the Liberty. I’ll happily take the points.
Lynx vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx +6
Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 rebounds
Over 159.5
I’m tempted to bet on Napheesa Collier (who became the first player in WNBA history with three straight 25/10 games) or Breanna Stewart or Sabrina Ionescu in this spot. Star power is always intriguing, but I’m shifting my focus to an unsung hero of this Liberty team — Jonquel Jones.
The 2021 league MVP is averaging 9.0 boards per game in 2024, and she corralled at least 10 boards in 18 of 45 appearances this season. She pulled down at least that many twice in four games against the Lynx, including the Liberty’s lone victory.
The Lynx allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game to opponents this season, making this a favorable spot. If DPOY Collier takes on Breanna Stewart, the 6-foot-6 Jones should enjoy some extra scoring and rebounding opportunities. We can get her rebounds line at a juicy +112 on FanDuel.
Neither of these teams hit the Over at a high mark during the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. The Lynx are 5-2 to the Over, while the Liberty are 4-2. The Over has hit in 12 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings, including seven of the last nine in New York. The point total isn’t particularly high at 159.5, so I’m happy to grab the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Liberty odds
Lynx vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs. Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +6 | New York -6
- Moneyline: Minnesota +210 | New York -265
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Lynx vs Liberty series odds
- Lynx: +225
- Liberty: -275
Lynx vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx are 30-17-1 ATS this season, including a 3-1 record across their last four games.
- The Liberty are 23-23-1 ATS in 2024 and 3-2-1 in the postseason.
- Minnesota hit the Over in 21 of 48 appearances this season, including three straight to close out the semifinals.
- New York is 23-24 to the Under in 2024, but the Liberty have hit the Over in four of their last five.
Lynx vs Liberty trend
Minnesota owns a healthy 30-17-1 ATS record, and the Lynx are 15-7-1 ATS across their last 23 overall. The Liberty are just 23-23-1 ATS in 2024, and the team is 7-18-1 ATS over their last 26 at Barclays Center. Minnesota covered in three of four matchups this season and has covered in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Liberty.
Lynx vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Lynx vs Liberty latest injuries
Lynx: No key injuries to report.
Liberty: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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