The Minnesota Lynx completed an historic comeback to defeat the New York Liberty in overtime in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Thursday, but the Liberty will look to even up the series in Sunday’s Game 2.
I’m backing New York to win Game 2 outright, but no matter who wins this one, my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions expect a high-scoring affair. Read my WNBA picks to see why you should target the Over on the point total in this one.
Lynx vs Liberty predictions
Who will win Lynx vs Liberty Game 2?
New York led by as many as 18 in this one, and the home team held a commanding 15-point lead with just over five minutes to go. Minnesota’s comeback was historic and unprecedented, which is why I’m backing the Liberty in Game 2.
New York knows that it let a very winnable home game slip through the cracks, and that should provide plenty of motivation. Breanna Stewart came up short in crunch time, and she said after the game, “We wanted to really win, obviously, for home court. But the beauty is, we have another game on Sunday and we’ll be ready.” Breanna, I concur.
My Lynx vs Liberty best bet
Pick
Over 162.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Despite finishing the regular season as two of the Top 5 defenses in the W, the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty have shown little concern for surrendering points across their most recent games. Game 1 ended in a 95-93 Lynx victory, though the contest went to overtime.
Even if this one had ended in regulation, the total would have been 168, comfortably hitting the Over on the 160.5 point total.
During the regular season, Minnesota allowed just 75.6 points, and New York allowed 76.5. In the playoffs, Minnesota has allowed 83.6, and New York has allowed 80.6. Both team’s defenses are giving up significantly more points, and despite Thursday’s huge scoring output, the total for Sunday is up by just two points.
New York ranked first in the W in points scored per game during the regular season at 85.6, and the Liberty are averaging exactly that mark in the postseason too. New York’s offense is ranked third in the playoffs, while Minnesota’s (which scored 82 points per game in the regular season) is ranked second with a boisterous 88.1 points per game.
Minnesota is led by this postseason’s top scorer, Napheesa Collier, who’s averaging a ridiculous 26.4 points per game. New York’s Sabrina Ionescu (20.4 points per game) and Breanna Stewart (19.7 points per game) are ranked fourth and fifth in playoff scoring, respectively.
I’m leery to take the spread in this one, but the point total feels like a reliable bet to hit the Over once again.
Lynx vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 162.5
Jonquel Jones Over 23.5 points + rebounds
Liberty moneyline
As expected, Jonquel Jones was an X-factor for New York in Game 1. The 6-foot-6 center enjoyed some extra operating room with Collier doing her best to slow down Breanna Stewart and extra defensive attention paid to Sabrina Ionescu.
Jones finished the contest as New York’s leading scorer and rebounder with a healthy 24/10 performance. New York’s lone win against the Lynx came when Jones scored and rebounded at an elite level, and the Liberty will likely keep that in mind for Game 2. I’m taking the Over on Jones’ P+R prop in this one.
I’m also backing the Liberty to bounce back and avenge a devastating home loss with a win in Game 2. This contest has the feel of a dominant New York performance, but given Minnesota’s head-to-head record against the Liberty this season and the fact that the Lynx will be fired up after a dramatic OT win, I can’t comfortably advise taking the Liberty at -7.5. They could certainly cover that spread, but Minnesota could take it down to the wire again, and I feel much better taking the Liberty straight-up.
New York has had its hands full with Minnesota, but the Liberty haven’t lost back-to-back games since May, and they had Game 1 in hand until the final minutes. The -320 odds aren’t ones that I’m taking as a single wager, but I’m happy to use it as the anchor to this three-leg parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Liberty odds
Lynx vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +6 | New York -6
- Moneyline: Minnesota +223 | New York -263
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Lynx vs Liberty series odds
- Lynx: -120
- Liberty: +105
Lynx vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx are 31-17-1 ATS this season, and the team has covered in four of its last five.
- The Liberty have covered in just 23 of 48 games in 2024, and New York is 3-3-1 through seven playoff games.
- Minnesota has hit the Over in 22 of 49 appearances this season, and the Lynx are 4-0 to the Over across their last four outings.
- New York is 24-24 to the Under this season, but the Liberty have gone Over in five of their last six appearances.
Lynx vs Liberty trend
New York hasn’t lost back-to-back games since May 23 & 25. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Liberty.
Lynx vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-13-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Lynx vs Liberty latest injuries
Lynx: None.
Liberty: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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