The Minnesota Lynx held on in dramatic fashion to steal Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, defeating the New York Liberty 82-80 on Friday. The series concludes Sunday night with a winner-take-all Game 5 at Barclay’s Center with history on the line.
I like the Liberty to take this one in front of the home crowd, but my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions believe Minnesota keeps it close.
Read my WNBA picks to see why you should lay the points with the Lynx on Sunday.
For Lynx vs. Liberty props, Eric Rosales has you covered!
Who will win Lynx vs Liberty?
Once again, I’m backing New York to win the game. The Liberty had several chances to take the lead in the final minute of Game 4, and Sabrina Ionescu even had a go-ahead heave at the buzzer that would have won the series had it gone in. Ionescu and star teammate Breanna Stewart combined for a dreadful 10-of-36 shooting mark from the floor (including 0-of-9 from beyond the arc) for just 21 points. Still, this was a very winnable game for the Liberty on the road. The series shifts back home, and there’s no way both Ionescu and Stewart shoot this poorly again.
Said Stewart of the loss and looming Sunday contest, “Short-term memory. Just the fact that all that happened tonight is the series is even, and there’s a Game 5, winner-take-all all. We are going back to New York, and we’re going to get it done. You know, getting it done there.”
Lynx vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Minnesota Lynx +5.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
My analysis
The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty know each other well at this point in the season. The two teams have faced each other eight times, and though Minnesota has won outright five times, four of the eight contests have been decided by five points or fewer. New York should be favored at home, but 5.5 points are far too many, especially considering three of the four Finals matchups have been decided by three points or fewer. All three of those games were decided within the final 10 seconds of the game.
Game 1 ended with an historic run by Minnesota to close out regulation followed by a go-ahead bucket in the final seconds of OT from Napheesa Collier. Game 3 featured a logo three from Sabrina Ionescu to break a 77-77 tie, and Game 4 finished with a go-ahead pair of free throws from Bridget Carleton to even up the series. I’m expecting Game 5 to follow suit and come down to the wire. Get your popcorn ready.
The Liberty are just 4-5-1 ATS in this season’s playoffs, including a 1-3 mark in the Finals. Minnesota has covered six of eight games against New York this season, including three times in five matchups at Barclay’s Center. New York is just 3-8-1 ATS over its last 12 at home. Over the last 30 days, road teams have a combined 48-24-2 ATS record, and road dogs are 23-13. New York should take the win and the franchise’s first title, but Minnesota won’t go down without a fight. Take the points here.
Lynx vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx +5.5
Breanna Stewart to record a double-double
Napheesa Collier Over 20.5 points
I backed Breanna Stewart to have a monster performance in Game 4 by taking the Over on her PRA prop, but that didn’t pan out. Stewart shot dreadfully, posting 11 points on 5-of-21 shooting. She pulled down 11 boards and finished with a second straight double-double despite the poor efficiency. Rather than taking the PRAs prop again, I’m shifting my focus to a double-double prop. Stewart has posted a double-double in 20 of 48 games overall this season, including four times in the playoffs and twice in the Finals. She reached this milestone in six of eight matchups with Minnesota this season, and I like her chances to do it again on Sunday. She’ll be at home playing in one of the most important games in franchise history while facing a team that’s been generous to opposing rebounders. Take the Over.
Collier enjoyed a productive regular season averaging 20.4 points, and she’s been even better in the playoffs, averaging 23.9. She’s hit the Over on this scoring prop in seven of 11 games this postseason, including two of four in the Finals. She had a pedestrian scoring performance in Game 4, going for 14 points on just 4-of-10 shooting. The 10 field goal attempts were her second-fewest of the season, and I expect her to be far more aggressive in Game 5 while trying to lead her team to a title and an upset over the favored Liberty. Collier’s points line is set far too low based on her scoring prowess, and this one screams Over in front of the brightest lights.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Liberty odds
Lynx vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 (-108) | New York -5.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +198 | New York -250
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Lynx vs Liberty series odds
- Lynx: +230
- Liberty: -280
Lynx vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- After covering the spread in Game 4, the Lynx are now 33-18-1 ATS this season and have covered in seven of their last 10.
- The Liberty are 24-26-1 ATS in 2024 after failing to cover on the road in Game 4.
- Minnesota has hit the Under in 27 of 52 games this season, though the Lynx have hit the Over in six of their last 10.
- New York is 25-26 to the Under in 2024, but the Liberty has hit the Over in four of their last seven
Lynx vs Liberty trend
The Lynx are 7-3 ATS across their last 10 games, including a 3-1 mark in the Finals. Minnesota has covered in five of its last six Finals games overall, five of its last six on the road, and 14 of its last 20 following a straight up win. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Liberty.
Lynx vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Lynx vs Liberty latest injuries
Lynx: None to report.
Liberty: None to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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