The WNBA semifinal series between the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun shifts to Mohegan Sun Arena tonight for Game 3 of their best-of-five series.
Minnesota knotted the series with a decisive 77-70 Game 2 victory, and my Lynx vs. Sun predictions expect more of the same when the two meet Friday night.
Read on for why my WNBA picks are backing Bridget Carleton to have success from downtown on Friday, October 4.
Lynx vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 made threes (+124 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Game 2 between the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun got a bit chippy, and Friday’s Game 3 of their best-of-five semifinal clash should be more of the same.
Both sides boast aggressive defenders and play physically. Layups and uncontested shot attempts come at a premium from everywhere whenever these two franchises clash.
The slow-paced slog they put each other through doesn’t help put points on the board, but a knock-down shooter like Lynx guard Bridget Carleton can thrive.
Carleton benefits from the Lynx’s superior ball movement; this season, the Iowa State grad made a career-high 42% of her 5.3 attempts from downtown, which has spiked to 50% on the same number of attempts during the playoffs.
Carleton has drained three or more in half of her 2024 playoff appearances. She went 1-3 from long range during Game 2, but sat out for roughly 10 minutes due to early foul trouble.
The Iowa State grad can sometimes get into foul trouble, but we will play her Over 2.5 made threes prop anyway. The Lynx’s unselfishness typically leads to wide-open looks, and Carleton should benefit from the defensive focus on Napheesa Collier, who’s been largely held in check so far this series.
Carleton has knocked down 3+ triples in four of her last five on the road, and three of her past five against the Sun. She’s been on fire during the postseason, and she’ll drop 3+ from long-range on Friday.
Lynx vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Bridget Carleton 3+ made threes
Marina Mabrey Under 15.5 points
Lynx moneyline
Friday’s clash will be a physical bout in which sharpshooters like Carleton excel. Sun guard Marina Mabrey has struggled against Minnesota, and her struggles should continue in Game 3.
Mabrey has been Connecticut’s most consistent scorer during the playoffs, but she’s struggled this season against the Lynx, scoring 16+ only once in four games against Minnesota.
The Lynx are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. They’ve beaten the Sun in two of their last three meetings, including September 17 at Mohegan Sun Arena. Connecticut hasn’t fared well at home recently against teams with above .500 marks, at just 1-4 in their last five against teams with winning records.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lynx vs Sun odds
Lynx vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Lynx vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Lynx vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +1.5 | Connecticut -1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +102 | Connecticut -117
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Lynx vs Sun series odds
- Lynx: -115
- Sun: -105
Lynx vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lynx are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
- The Sun are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
- Over/Under totals haven’t moved much from the 151.5 (-110) openers. The Lynx are 4-6-0 to the Under across their last 10, while Connecticut is 3-7-0 to the Under in its previous 10.
Lynx vs Sun trend
Minnesota is 8-2 SU in its previous 10 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.
Lynx vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date: | Friday, 10-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Lynx vs Sun latest injuries
Lynx: None.
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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