The Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury clash for the second time in a week at Michelob ULTRA Arena on May 21.
Diana Taurasi has long been a part of this Phoenix franchise, and I'm expecting a big effort from her on the glass tonight. Find out why I'm taking the Over on her rebounding prop in my WNBA picks ahead.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My best bet
Diana Taurasi Over 3.5 rebounds (+105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Could 2024 be Diana Taurasi’s swan song in the WNBA?
“The Logo” is in her 20th season and wants to close out her legendary career as a winner, which is why the Phoenix Mercury flipped the roster and brought in a bunch of new bodies to battle the likes of the Las Vegas Aces.
Even at 41 years old, Taurasi is the beating heart of the Mercury — and not just there to put up points. The feisty 6-foot guard was very physical (maybe too physical, if you saw that bodycheck on Cheyenne Parker-Tyus) and grabbed seven rebounds in the team’s win against Atlanta on the weekend.
Tonight’s meeting with the Aces promises to be another up-and-down contest. These clubs opened the schedule against each other, running out a pace rating of 102.0 (very fast for the WNBA) and hoisting up 147 combined shots.
Phoenix is playing without standout center Brittney Griner (toe) to start the season, which leaves the lineup very small. That asks guards like Taurasi to crash the glass and keep opponents from offensive rebounds. She had three rebounds against the Aces last Tuesday before Saturday’s big day on the boards.
Player projections for Tuesday’s return trip to Sin City call for four-plus rebounds from Taurasi, which looks good measured against the WNBA prop odds. Sportsbooks have Taurasi’s rebound total at 3.5 O/U with the Over paying out at high as +102 on Tuesday morning.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Diana Taurasi Over 3.5 rebounds
A’Ja Wilson Over 23.5 points
Las Vegas Aces moneyline
The pace of this game should produce plenty of shots and rebounding chances. Taurasi's player models called for four-plus boards.
Wilson dropped 30 points on Phoenix last week, and this smaller Mercury lineup has no one to guard her. Projections called for a ceiling of 26+.
Are the new-look Mercury for real after taking the fight to Vegas and winning vs. Atlanta? It's a big number to lay, so I'm siding with the Aces to hold down home court on the outright odds at bet365 (which payout early should they get up by 18 points).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +15 (-110) | Las Vegas -15 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +900 | Las Vegas -1,800
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 (-110) | Under 170.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
• Las Vegas opened as 15-point home favorites for this rematch with Pheonix and that has since slimmed to as low as -14 at some sharper books on Tuesday morning. Las Vegas has won 10 straight over Phoenix with a 7-3 ATS mark, going back to May 2022.
• My WNBA power ratings produced a projected spread of Aces -15, before adjusting for injuries. Las Vegas is still without starting point guard Chelsea Gray, and Phoenix is missing veteran center Brittney Griner in the middle. The Aces have a surplus of talent to soften Gray’s absence, while Griner’s injury had a bigger impact on a smaller Mercury roster lacking size.
• The Over/Under total opened at 170.5 and is up to 173.5 points. The first matchup between these teams just played Under the closing total of 170 points O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus data, 59% of picks are taking the points with Phoenix, while 53% of picks on the total are siding with the Over.
Mercury vs Aces trend
The Over is 11-4-1 in Las Vegas Aces last 16 vs. Western Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs Aces.
Mercury vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network, Arizona's Family 3TV |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: Brittney Griner C (Out).
Aces: Chelsea Gray PG (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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