Mercury vs Dream Predictions, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

After knocking off a pair of Top 4 teams to come out of the Olympic Break, the Atlanta Dream host the first of a two-game set at home against the Phoenix Mercury.

The Mercury, who sit sixth in the overall standings, are two-point road favorites on Wednesday in the WNBA odds.

My Mercury vs. Dream predictions and free WNBA picks like the home team to hold its own as they continue to chase the final playoff berth.

Mercury vs Dream predictions

My best bet
Dream +2 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

The Phoenix Mercury's recent stretch of three wins in its last four has been a help to the Atlanta Dream. Two of those last three have come out of the Olympic break against the Chicago Sky — the team Atlanta is chasing for eighth. That’s helped close the gap to 1.5 games between the eighth and ninth seeds.

But Phoenix has its eyes set on its own path too as they’re still very much in the mix for a Top 4 seed, trailing both Vegas (fourth) and Seattle (fifth) by just three games. They’re powered by the third-best scoring offense in the league, pumping out 84.1 points per game. The Mercury are a Top 5 unit in both field goal and 3-point shooting.

However, the defense is a question mark, as they surrender 84.9 points per game, which ranks a lowly ninth. That didn’t seem to be a problem when they topped the low-scoring Sky, winning by an average of 19. But it is a problem when locking up with a team that can score, like the Indiana Fever, who hung a 98-89 win on them on Aug 16.

And it could be a concern in Atlanta, as the Dream have found a scoring groove that’s pushed them well past their 75.8 season average, which ranks last in the league. In their two wins out of the extended break, Atlanta is posting 82.5 points per game, shooting 44.4% from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range — splits well above its season ranks. Most recently, they hung 82 on the Connecticut Sun, who currently lead the WNBA in scoring defense at 73.5 points per contest.

The defense is delivering too, holding their last two opponents to 75.5 points per game, allowing them to shoot just 40.7% from the field and 26.3% from distance.

This will be the second of four meetings between these teams, with Phoenix taking the first way back on May 18 in an 88-85 decision.

With the way the Dream are currently playing, there’s a good chance this one ends up as close. I’ll roll with the home dogs, who have covered six of the last eight meetings between these teams.

Mercury vs Dream same-game parlay (SGP)

Dream +2

Kahleah Copper Over 23.5 points

Allisha Gray Over 1.5 made 3s

+550 at DraftKings

Kahleah Copper is coming off one of her worst performances of the season in Phoenix’s win over Chicago, tying a season-low with seven points on just 2-for-11 shooting. That came after back-to-back games out of the break where she poured in 61 points on 18-for-36 shooting, a crisp 50% clip, which included 5-for-12 from downtown.

She had gone under 22 points just once in her last nine regular season games. The bounce back is coming, and Atlanta might bring out a biggie. Copper’s season high this year is against the Dream, when she poured in 38 on 11-for-20 shooting.

I'm also banking on the opposition lifting Allisha Gray out of her current 3-point shooting slump.

Gray is shooting a woeful 1-for-10 from beyond the arc out of the break, going Under her total of 1.5 set for Wednesday both times. She hasn’t been able to hit two triples in a game since July 2, but Gray has been on target against the Mercury for most of the last three seasons.

She drilled three of four from downtown in their matchup this year, marking the fifth time in the last seven she’s hit at least two 3-pointers against Phoenix. This is as good a time as any to roll those plus odds into a SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mercury vs Dream odds

Mercury vs Dream live odds

Get the latest Mercury vs Dream WNBA odds for tonight.

Mercury vs Dream opening odds

• Spread: Phoenix -2 (-112) | Atlanta +2 (-108)
• Moneyline: Phoenix -130 | Atlanta +110
• Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-112) | Under 165.5 (-108)

Mercury vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mercury are 16-11-0 against the spread this season.
• The Under has cashed in six of the last nine head-to-heads.
• Phoenix has gone Over the total in five of its last seven.

Mercury vs Dream trend

Atlanta has covered in six of the last eight meetings between these teams. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Dream.

Mercury vs Dream game info

Mercury vs Dream latest injuries

Mercury: Charisma Osborne (Out), Rebecca Allen (Out)
Dream: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (day-to-day), Aerial Powers (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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