Mercury vs Fever Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

The Phoenix Mercury will look to continue their three-game winning streak as they visit Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever on Friday night.

Phoenix (12-10) comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite in the WNBA odds over the Fever (9-14), who are fresh off an 89-84 home loss to the Washington Mystics.

My Mercury vs. Fever predictions will look at what we can expect tonight from these two offensive-minded teams. Read on for my WNBA picks for July 12, including a Caitlin Clark prop pick.

Mercury vs Fever predictions

My best bet
Under 175.5 (-110 at Caesars)

My analysis

The Phoenix Mercury are one of the more veteran-oriented teams in the league, while the Indiana Fever are being built around their superstar rookie. Regardless, those very different makeups have still created two teams with similar approaches.

In both cases, these teams are far better at scoring points than stopping their opponents. Indiana has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year, posting a terrible 108.3 defensive rating. However, the Fever have been a fair offensive squad, putting up 80.7 points per game and ranking fourth in effective field goal percentage (50.7%). 

Phoenix is a bit better on both ends, but still has an offensive bias, ranking fourth in ppg (83.8) and fourth-worst in points allowed (84.9 ppg).

Naturally, oddsmakers have noticed these trends and have started to put some significantly higher totals on the games for both teams. And while that makes sense in principle, it means that both sides are now hitting the Under regularly, especially when the total goes above 170 points.

The Fever have been saddled with totals of more than 170 three times in the last two weeks, hitting the Under each time. The Mercury’s trend hasn’t been as clear, but they’ve hit the Under in five of their last seven games overall.

Most notably, the first game between these two teams hit the Under and came in at exactly 170 points. I’m banking on a similar performance tonight.

Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight

My best bet
Caitlin Clark Over 9.5 assists (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

There’s one constant when it comes to Caitlin Clark’s performances: she will distribute the ball and pick up gaudy assist numbers almost every time she takes the court. Her shooting is up and down, and she’s way too careless with the ball right now, but she finds her teammates for scoring opportunities again and again.

Clark has hit 11+ assists in each of her last four games and five of her last six. Sportsbooks are finally catching up to this trend and have pushed her assist prop totals up a notch, but I don’t think the number is high enough to concern bettors. 

Mercury vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 175.5

Mercury -2.5

Caitlin Clark Over 9.5 assists

+725 at BetMGM

For tonight’s same-game parlay, I’m taking the Under and combining it with a bet on the Mercury to cover a small spread. Phoenix is the better team on both sides of the ball and has been playing well as of late, which gives me confidence it can walk away with a road win in Indiana.

I’ll also include my bet on Clark to hit her assists total. What’s great about this wager is that it has a negative correlation with the other two legs, yet we've seen Clark hit high assist totals even in games where her team has struggled.

That adds a ton of value to this SGP tonight, a game in which Clark could easily go for double-digit assists yet again.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mercury vs Fever odds

Mercury vs Fever live odds

Get the latest Mercury vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.

Mercury vs Fever opening odds

• Spread: Phoenix -2.5 (-105) | Indiana +2.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Phoenix -135 | Indiana +110
• Over/Under: Over 172.5 (-110) | Under 172.5 (-110)

Mercury vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mercury are 14-8 against the spread on the season, while the Fever have gone 12-11 ATS this year.
• Phoenix is riding a three-game winning streak ATS and has gone 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
• The Under has a 13-9 advantage when the Mercury play this season, while the Over has gone 15-8 when the Fever play.
• Indiana is playing to a total of 168.0 points per game on the season, just below Phoenix’s average total of 168.7.

Mercury vs Fever trend

The Under is 4-1 in Indiana’s last five games and 5-2 in Phoenix’s last seven. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Fever.

Mercury vs Fever game info

Mercury vs Fever latest injuries

Mercury: No injuries to report.
Fever: No injuries to report. 
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic