The Minnesota Lynx emerged victorious in a thrilling Game 1 against the Phoenix Mercury on Monday, and Phoenix will look to even up the series tonight in Game 2.
With a potential retirement announcement looming, each game could be Diana Taurasi’s last. My Mercury vs. Lynx predictions like the WNBA legend to have a strong performance in a win-or-go-home contest. Read my WNBA picks to see why you should bet the Over on Taurasi’s combo prop on Wednesday.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Diana Taurasi Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Diana Taurasi turned back the clock in Monday’s loss, finishing with 21 points, two rebounds, and two assists. She nearly cashed the Over on this prop with her scoring alone, and I’m betting on another strong effort in Game 2.
The 42-year-old’s production has dipped in recent seasons, but she still averaged 22.1 PRA in 2024, going for 22+ in 19 of 35 regular-season appearances. She hit the Over three times in five games against the Minnesota Lynx (including Game 1) and averaged 20.2 PRA.
The Phoenix Mercury missed the playoffs each of the last two seasons, so this season’s appearance should hold special significance for the team and its leader. A victory tonight means at least one more appearance in front of the Mercury faithful at Footprint Center, so I expect Taurasi to do everything she can to get her team in that position.
To sweeten this prop, these teams scored 197 combined points in Game 1 and went for at least 161 points in three of four regular-season matchups. That means there should be plenty of opportunities for Taurasi to score, rebound, and assist.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Diana Taurasi Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists
Mercury +9
Natasha Cloud Over 19.5 points + assists
The Mercury are 9-point dogs on the road, but this team is full of veterans who won’t go down without a fight. The Lynx built a 23-point first-half lead in Game 1 only to see it evaporate as Phoenix charged back and led as late as two minutes left in the fourth quarter.
I expect the Mercury to rally in Game 2 and cover the spread for the fourth time in five games. Minnesota finished the regular season 4-1 ATS, but this Mercury group has a lot of experience and a lot of pride. This line is too high for Minnesota, even in a home matchup.
Natasha Cloud has been on a roll lately, and she put up some gaudy numbers in Game 1 with 33 points and 10 assists. We’re not chasing points here, though her scoring prop is set at a measly 11.5 points. Instead, we’ll pivot to an appealing combo prop. She's averaged 21.2 points + assists across her last 10 games, hitting the Over seven times and in four of her last five.
She's been a strong facilitator throughout the 2024 season, but she’s stepped up as a scorer over her last 10, averaging 13.6 points to help pick up the slack for a struggling Kahleah Copper.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs. Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +9 | Minnesota -9
- Moneyline: Phoenix +350 | Minnesota -450
- Over/Under: Over 160.5| Under 160.5
Mercury vs Lynx series odds
- Mercury: +1,000
- Lynx: -1,800
Mercury vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mercury finished the 2024 season with a 19-21 SU record and a 20-19-1 ATS record.
- The Lynx went 30-10 SUp in the regular season and compiled a 25-14-1 ATS record.
- Phoenix is 20-20-1 to the Under in 2024, but the Mercury have hit the Over in four of their last five games.
- Minnesota is just 17-23-2 to the Under on the season, but the Lynx are 3-2 to the Over across their last five outings. .
Mercury vs Lynx trend
Minnesota has won three of four matchups against Phoenix this season and eight of 10 dating back to 2022. The Mercury have covered in two of the last four, but the Lynx are 7-3 ATS across the last 10 meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
Mercury vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
Mercury: Charisma Osborne G (Questionable), Rebecca Allen G (Out).
Lynx: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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