The 2024 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup continues Sunday with a matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Dallas Wings in Arlington. The Mercury have won two of their three Commissioner’s Cup games after a four-game losing streak in regular season games. The Wings are 0-3 in the Commissioner’s Cup and have lost four straight games overall.
My Mercury vs. Wings predictions run down the spread and total for this Commissioner’s Cup battle as I give my best WNBA picks for June 9.
Mercury vs Wings predictions
My best bet
Mercury +1.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
These two teams played each other in a regular season game back on May 25 in Phoenix that resulted in a 107-92 Dallas Wings victory. Arike Ogunbowale went off for 40 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and four steals in that game, and three other Wings players all racked up 7+ boards. No player for the Phoenix Mercury had more than five rebounds.
However, now the Mercury have Brittney Griner back, who put up 11 points and four rebounds in 21 minutes in her first game back against the Lynx on Friday. Griner could make a massive difference in what is the Wings' biggest advantage against most opponents. The Wings rank second in the league in both rebounds and rebounds allowed.
The Mercury are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the WNBA, averaging 29.4 attempts per game (first) and shooting 33.4% from beyond the arc (second). In the Wings' four-game losing streak, they've allowed 84.3 points per game. Phoenix should have no problem hitting this mark with its shooting ability.
Where things have gone bad for the Wings is their inability to score at the same rate they were earlier in the season. Dallas is averaging 92.7 points per game in their three wins, but only 75.5 in their six losses. The Mercury have only allowed 76.0 in their three Commissioner’s Cup games and no team has surpassed the 80-point mark against them in those three.
With Griner back and a little more even battle on the glass, it will likely come down to which team hits more shots. That will certainly favor the Mercury and Kahleah Copper, who's coming off a 34-point game against the Lynx. The Wings will continue their losing streak on Sunday and the Mercury will stay hot.
Mercury vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury +1
Under 163.5
30% boost available
If the Mercury are going to win this game on the road, they'll need to do so by keeping up their defensive efforts from the past three games. We'll keep this SGP simple by taking the Mercury against the spread and combining it with the Under.
Six of the last eight Mercury games have gone Under the total and five of the last seven matchups with the Wings have done the same. You can even use your 30% WNBA profit boost on FanDuel for this wager to give a little extra to a simple parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs Wings odds
Mercury vs Wings live odds
Get the latest Mercury vs Wings WNBA odds for tonight.
Mercury vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +3.5 | Dallas -3.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +125 | Dallas -150
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Mercury vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Wings opened as 3.5-point favorites, but the line has moved down to -1 as of Sunday morning.
- The underdog has covered in seven of the last 10 matchups with one push.
- The total opened at 165.5 but has moved down to 163.5 as of Sunday morning.
- The Under is 5-1 in the Mercury’s last six games overall.
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Mercury vs Wings trend
The Wings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one day of rest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Liberty.
Mercury vs Wings game info
| Location: | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KPHE-LD, Bally Southwest |
Mercury vs Wings latest injuries
Mercury: No key injuries to report.
Wings: Jaelyn Brown G (Questionable), Satou Sabally F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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