Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Ogwumike Gets Back Up

The short-handed Minnesota Lynx cruise back to the coast to face the Los Angeles Sparks in WNBA betting action Tuesday night.

These teams clashed just a few days ago, with Minnesota stealing a 77-74 victory as a 5.5-point underdog in L.A. on June 16. It was the Lynx’s fifth against-the-spread payday in six games, but the team came crashing back to earth in a 31-point thrashing as a 17-point pup in Las Vegas on the weekend.

Tonight’s spread is sitting around the same number as last week’s matchup with Los Angeles, but the challenge of this three-game road grind and a short bench without key contributors could catch up with Minnesota.

I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this Western Conference contest and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Lynx at Sparks on June 20.

Lynx vs Sparks best odds

Lynx vs Sparks picks and predictions

Both teams are feeling the grind of the WNBA schedule as the injury reports feature some key components.

The Sparks, specifically, have a skeleton crew in the backcourt with guards Lexie Brown, Nia Clouden, and Layshia Clarendon out of action tonight and Chiney Ogwumike still working her way back from a foot injury.

Her minutes have been limited the past two games after missing four contests with the bum wheel, playing just 13 minutes against Minnesota last Friday and logging 14 in the loss to Connecticut on Sunday.

However, Chiney is still in the starting lineup and could see her floor time increase as she gets healthier. While she’s been limited, Ogwumike has contributed on the scoreboard with efforts of five and six points in those outings, shooting a combined 5-for-7 from the floor.

Her player prop for Tuesday’s return meeting with Minnesota reflects that decrease in minutes, parked at 7.5 points (Over -115). However, given the state of the Sparks' backcourt and her usual role in the offense, there’s a high ceiling for Chiney.

Her player projections sit as tall as 14-plus given 29 minutes of forecasted floor time. While she may not flirt with her usual 30 minutes of work, she’s trending toward that. Last Sunday’s game with the Sun was the first time in weeks in which Ogwumike wasn’t listed on the injury report.

In her last game played a full strength, Chiney scored 15 points in a home win over Seattle on June 3 and has posted home scoring outputs of 19 and 15 points already this year.

Taking the Over 7.5 is a bit of a risk if Curt Miller continues to protect her foot with limited action, but it really feels like oddsmakers aren’t padding against a return to form or an uptick in floor time. Even a slight bump to 20-plus minutes makes scoring eight or more points very obtainable for the Sparks guard.

My best bet: Chiney Ogwumike Over 7.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Lynx vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

WNBA odds opened with Los Angeles as 5.5-point home chalk for this rematch with Minnesota, which is where last Friday’s line closed. It has jumped to -6 as most books as of Tuesday morning.

While the Lynx got the better of the Sparks last week, their roster has some rather large holes at the moment and the bench is running thin with standouts Jessica Shepard, Aerial Powers, and Diamond Miller out of action.

My WNBA power ratings produced an unadjusted line of Los Angeles -4.25, but when you factor in the impact of those injuries and the situational spot of Minnesota playing three road games in five days, you get a number closer to L.A. -6. That’s where this current line is trending with 57% of picks on the Sparks, according to Covers Consensus.

This is actually the third meeting between the Lynx and Sparks in the past 10 days, with Los Angeles visiting Minnesota for a 91-86 defeat as a 1-point road fave on June 11. The rosters were a little more robust in that matchup as the Sparks have also had their share of ailments. They enter Tuesday with a decimated backcourt, as guards Lexie Brown, Nia Clouden, and Layshia Clarendon are inactive.

Los Angeles fell to head coach Curt Miller’s former club Connecticut this weekend, losing 83-74 as a 3-point home underdog. The Sparks have failed to crack 80 points in three straight games and own a dull offensive rating of 97.0 in that span.

Minnesota returns to Crypto.com Arena shell-shocked from a weekend run-in with the reigning champion Aces. The Lynx looked like they might stay inside of a monster 17-point spread in the first half but were outscored 39-21 in the final two frames. Minnesota made only 33% of its takes from the floor and was 9-for-37 in the second half.

Tonight’s total hit the board at 160.5 points and has since slimmed to 159 as of Tuesday morning. While these teams topped a 159.5-point number in Minnesota earlier this month — combining for 177 points — last week’s game in L.A. had a very different result.

The Lynx and Sparks combined for only 149 points and played Under the closing number of 160.5, with Los Angeles struggling from the field (shooting just 43%). The game paced out at a slow rating of 88.8 (versus 98.4 on June 11), which is very methodical, even for a Minnesota offense that ranks as the third-slowest tempo in the league (95.95).

Lynx vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Sparks are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sparks.

Lynx vs Sparks game info

Lynx vs Sparks key injuries

Lynx: Diamond Miller G (Out), Aerial Powers F (Out), Jessica Shepard C (Out)
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out), Layshia Clarendon G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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