The winless Washington Mystics come to Brooklyn looking for that elusive victory when they visit the New York Liberty on Friday.
According to the WNBA odds, there’s a good chance Washington leaves the Barclays Center with an 0-8 record, as New York is a hefty 15.5-point home favorite tonight.
I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for the Eastern Conference encounter and give my best WNBA picks for Mystics vs. Liberty on May 31.
Mystics vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The New York Liberty are loaded with options on offense, and while the likes of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones get the bulk of the attention, forward Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is just as potent at putting up points.
Laney-Hamilton is coming off a 15-point effort in the win over Phoenix on Wednesday, shooting 6-for-11 from the floor with a blend of inside looks, 3-point attempts, and mid-range makes.
That effort helped New York avoid a bad loss and increase her scoring average to 12.3 points on the season, which is almost exactly where her scoring prop for Friday’s matchup with the Washington Mystics sits.
Washington may not have a tick in its win column, but it is playing scrappy defense and not giving up anything easy.
The Mystics sit fourth in points in the paint allowed and have put the breaks on any offenses looking to push the pace (only 8.4 fastbreak points allowed). Washington has also protected the perimeter well, holding foes to less than 31% success from beyond the arc and just over seven triples made per contest.
If we look at player projections for the Liberty, those big-name scorers have tempered forecasts against Washington tonight — except from Laney-Hamilton, who scored 20 points against the Mystics in the season opener (9-for-13).
One thing Washington does well is limit the amount of assists opponents pile up, playing aggressively in the passing lanes and forcing more one-on-one matchups. Laney-Hamilton just so happens to be New York's best isolation player, with a team-high 46.9% of her buckets coming unassisted.
She’s forecasted for as many as 15 points, with my number coming out to 14.6 points. Given that projection, the Over 12.5 points should be priced in the -156 range, but you can shop around for a low of Over 12.5 as of Friday morning.
Mystics vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Over 12.5 points
Liberty moneyline
Liberty first quarter team total Over 22.5
Laney-Hamilton can score in several ways, including making mid-range jumpers, which have been a soft spot for Washington’s defense.
Given their 1-6 record against the spread and this monster line, we’ll keep it simple and just add the Liberty to win outright. If New York goes up by 18 points, bet365 pays out early.
Fast starts in the first quarter has been New York’s plan of attack. The Liberty lead the WNBA with a 1Q scoring average of 25.6 points and dropped 33 points in the opening frame on Wednesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Liberty odds
Mystics vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Washington +15.5 (-115) | New York -15.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Washington +800 | New York -1,400
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-123) | Under 161.5 (-112)
Mystics vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
• The Liberty opened as 15.5-point favorites for Friday home stand and that spread has dipped to -15 at some books on Friday morning. New York snapped a two-game skid with a near-collapse to Phoenix at home Wednesday and is just 1-6 ATS on the season.
• These Eastern rivals opened the season against each other, with the Liberty winning 85-80 in D.C. but coming up short of the 11.5-point spread. That matchup barely landed Over the closing total of 164.5 O/U.
• The Over/Under opened at 161.5 points and is down to 160.5 O/U. Washington and New York have 3-4 O/U counts on the season — two of only three teams to lean toward the Under in the opening month of play.
• According to Covers Consensus data, 75% of early picks are taking the pile of points with the Mystics, while 54% of picks on the total are going with the Over.
Get WNBA League Pass Free with FanDuel
Opt-in and place a wager of $1 or more on any WNBA market between now and June 16 and get a FREE month of WNBA League Pass!
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Mystics vs Liberty trend
The Mystics are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Liberty. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Liberty.
Mystics vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Friday, May 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Mystics vs Liberty latest injuries
Mystics: Brittney Sykes G (Out).
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
