The Washington Mystics will continue the search for their first win of the 2024 WNBA season as they visit the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday night.
I’ll take a look at why Washington has been struggling so far this season and whether Phoenix can keep that losing streak intact in my WNBA picks and Mystics vs. Mercury predictions below.
Mystics vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Mercury -7 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Washington Mystics are struggling to figure out how to move on in the post-Elena Delle Donne era. The iconic superstar had kept the Mystics relevant for six seasons, even winning a title with the team in 2019. Now, without Delle Donne or other stars like Natasha Cloud, Washington is trying to find new ways to win.
So far, that effort hasn’t been successful. Washington is 0-4 on the year and while the Mystics have looked good for stretches, fourth-quarter collapses have doomed them time and again. Losing Brittney Sykes to an ankle injury hasn’t helped matters, and she’ll miss out on tonight’s game as well.
Washington’s biggest problem has been generating offense. That was a predictable problem given their offseason losses, and the Mystics now have just a 92.3 offensive rating, the second-worst mark in the league. Ariel Atkins is pacing the team with 14 points per game, but other expected contributors, such as rookie forward Aaliyah Edwards (7.8 ppg), aren’t quite ready to be stars in the league just yet.
Washington has been nearly dead average in defensive rating (99.7), but a so-so effort on defense hasn’t been enough to overcome a lack of scoring, particularly the absence of a go-to option in big moments.
That’s not going to cut it against a Phoenix Mercury team that has one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Although Phoenix will be without Brittney Griner for the foreseeable future, they’ve found plenty of scoring punch thanks to Kahleah Copper. The former Sky standout has increased her output in each of the last three seasons, averaging 18.7 ppg for Chicago last year.
Copper has scored 38 and 37 points in her past two games. Incredibly, she went 15-for-23 to score 37 points in just 30 minutes against the defending champion Aces on Tuesday. That performance helped lead Phoenix to a massive upset win, their second straight victory.
Tonight, the Mercury should make it three in a row against a Mystics team that's still trying to find its footing.
Mystics vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -7
Over 164
Kahleah Copper 25+ points
The Mercury could be able to cover tonight behind a big game from Kahleah Copper, and that’s the thread that ties my SGP together. Along with taking Phoenix on the spread, I’m looking at Copper to score at least 25 points. The 29-year-old guard has easily hit that total in each of her last two games and is averaging an astounding 31.3 points per game to start the year.
With Copper adding that many points to the total, I’m also taking the Over. Phoenix has come in above tonight’s total in each of their first three games and should be able to keep up that pace against a mediocre Mystics defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Mercury odds
Mystics vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs. Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Washington +4.5 | Phoenix -4.5
- Moneyline: Washington +225 | Phoenix -275
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
Mystics vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- While Phoenix opened as a 4.5-point favorite, that line has lengthened considerably, with most books now offering anywhere from Mercury -6.5 to -7.5.
- Washington went 3-1 against Phoenix last season, both straight-up and ATS.
- Tonight’s total opened at 161.5 points at most sites. The consensus Over/Under is now 163.5, with some books going to a flat 164.
- Washington has yet to play to a total of more than 165 points this season, while Phoenix has played to totals of 169 or more in each of its first three games.
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Mystics vs Mercury trend
Phoenix is 3-0 ATS so far in the 2024 season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Mercury.
Mystics vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PRIME |
Mystics vs Mercury latest injuries
Mystics: No key injuries to report.
Mercury: Brittany Griner C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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