The Phoenix Mercury have just clinched a playoff berth while the Washington Mystics are still working on crashing that party.
With Washington playing much better, particularly on defense, of late, our Mystics vs. Mercury predictions expect the visitors to keep things close.
Read on for a full slate of WNBA picks for Thursday, September 5.
Mystics vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Mystics +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Amazingly, the Washington Mystics are still in the mix despite opening the season 0-12.
They’re cooking right now, having ripped off wins in four of their last five, most recently outlasting the Dallas Wings 90-86. It’s an outlier of a W during this stretch, as the Mystics had used a smothering defense in their previous three wins, limiting teams to just 72 points per game. The wins come a lot easier when they’re not allowing 83.5 points per game, which is their season average.
Washington is also seeking its fourth straight road win, and the Phoenix Mercury haven’t been that great at the Footprint Center of late, dropping three of their last four. However, that one win was against the Atlanta Dream in their last game, locking them into the playoffs. Currently the seventh seed, Phoenix is still just a game back of Indiana, so there is still something left to play for.
The Mercury will also try to sweep the three-game season series against the Mystics, though the visitors have been competitive, keeping the margin of victory to single digits each time.
Offense may continue to be a problem for Washington, who is one of just four WNBA teams to average fewer than 80 points per game this season. However, Phoenix doesn’t bring a great defense to the table, ranking Bottom 4 in points allowed on the year.
With the playoffs safely secured, it feels like a sigh of relief could be sweeping over the Mercury, just as the Mystics desperately need a W.
While the teams have split the last six regular season games, Washington owns a 4-2-0 record against the spread and should be motivated enough to at least hang around in this one.
Mystics vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mystics +5.5
Kahleah Copper Under 20.5 points
Ariel Atkins Over 1.5 threes
It was a great time for Phoenix scoring leader Kahleah Copper to find her groove again. After four straight games scoring 16 points or less, she lit up Atlanta for 28 points on 8-for-16 shooting in a 74-66 win.
But she’s had her troubles scoring against Washington over her career.
Apart from the last game on July 16, when she went for 22, Copper has gone Under her 20.5 line set for Thursday in her other 24 games against the Mystics. After breaking the streak, I’m banking on a regression to the mean.
Let’s wrap this SGP with Mystics guard Ariel Atkins, who has been connecting at a pretty good frequency from distance. She has hit at least three 3-pointers in four of her last six games while shooting it at a crisp 44.1%.
During their recent home slide, Phoenix has been allowing teams to hit at a high 36.6% clip, a number that would rank second-last in the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Mercury odds
Mystics vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Washington +5 (-110) | New York -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington +180 | New York -220
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 (-110)
Mystics vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- Phoenix is 10-7 at home this season.
- Washington is 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Mercury in their last eight meetings.
- The Over has cashed in four of the last six head-to-head matchups.
- The Mystics have gone Under the total in four of their last six.
Mystics vs Mercury trend
Phoenix is 1-3 in its last four home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Mercury.
Mystics vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Monumental SN, AZFS |
Mystics vs Mercury latest injuries
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Out).
Mercury: Charisma Osborne G (Out), Rebecca Allen G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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