The top two teams in the WNBA do battle for a second time in three days when the New York Liberty take on the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday night.
New York is fresh off a statement win over Las Vegas in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, handling the defending WNBA champs 82-63 as a 7-point road underdog on Tuesday. It was their second dominating victory over Vegas this month after stomping the Aces 99-61 at home on August 6.
Those recent wins have slimmed the gap between these two teams in the WNBA Championship odds, and has shrunk tonight’s spread to an opener as low as Liberty +5.5. However, the line has since climbed as we get closer to the 10 p.m. ET tipoff.
I look at this fourth matchup between these league powers and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty at Aces on August 17.
Liberty vs Aces best odds
Liberty vs Aces picks and predictions
As someone who grabbed the New York Liberty to win the WNBA title at +850 before their windfall of free agents this offseason, I love seeing the Liberty flex on the Las Vegas Aces.
That said, I still believe Las Vegas is the best team in the league — regardless of those last two outcomes. Looking beyond those final scores, we find some funky results for both teams in those contests.
The Aces suddenly went from the WNBA’s best 3-point shooting team to an offense that couldn’t throw a grape in the ocean, making 22% of their shots beyond the arc.
On the other end, the basket looked like it was 10 feet wide for the Liberty, who have shot a combined 45.5% from the field against the top-rated defensive team in the league (96.7 defensive rating).
And on Tuesday, Las Vegas led a grinder of a game by two points at the half with 24 rebounds in those opening 20 minutes, and finished the final two frames with only four total boards — something Aces head coach Becky Hammon admitted she’s never witnessed in her storied career as a player and a coach.
I’m not downplaying the validity of New York, but my rating backs the Aces, as do the oddsmakers’ expectations. This team hasn’t had much to play for this season, setting itself on cruise control for parts of the schedule. And while it’s too late to step up for a Commissioner’s Cup title, Vegas finds itself playing for pride Thursday night.
Anomalies will correct themselves, especially the Aces’ terrible touch from distance and those rotten rebounding numbers. Vegas’ wheels came off in the final 20 minutes of those past two contests, down five points at the break on August 6 and up two on Tuesday before losing by 33 and 31 points, respectively, in the second half.
The Liberty have shown they can run with the defending champs, so I’m going to pass on the point spread and look to Las Vegas on the double result — first half/full game odds — at -135 rather than lay the lumber with the full-game moneyline, which is climbing as high as -300 in the WNBA odds.
The Aces are extremely strong in the opening two quarters, especially at home, with a 1H net rating of +27.4 inside Michelob Ultra Arena. They did a very good job limiting the Liberty to just 32 points in the opening 20 minutes on Tuesday — something that’s forgotten in the final score — and it’s tough to fathom this loaded Las Vegas team falling on its face in the second half for a third straight outing.
My best bet: Las Vegas 1H/2H double result (-135 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best WNBA bonuses
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get up to $1,250 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win at Caesars! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Liberty vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
Following Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup game, which closed with Las Vegas as a 7.5-point home chalk, this regular season meeting between New York and Las Vegas opened with the Aces as short as 5.5-point home favorites.
That line didn’t last long, running up to Vegas -6 and as big as -6.5 as of Thursday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 58% of picks are siding with the home team, which is a notable change in market perception. The Aces drew 65% of picks on Tuesday, and 70% of picks when they were 4.5-point favorites in Brooklyn for the August 6 loss to the Liberty.
My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Las Vegas -7.13 for Tuesday’s mid-season tournament title game, and after adjusting to that result, my forecast set the Aces as -6.07 favorites for tonight’s rematch.
Strong second halves have been New York’s path to victory in the past two meetings with Las Vegas, specifically locking down one of the most potent scoring attacks in WNBA history. The Aces have tallied just 46 combined second-half points in those matchups, including just 29 second-half points in Tuesday’s defeat.
New York has taken advantage of Vegas missing center Candace Parker and have thrown extra bodies at two-time MVP A’Ja Wilson inside, forcing the ball to the perimeter. From there, the Aces haven’t been able to knock down outside shots, firing a collective 11-for-49 from 3-point range (22%) in those two losses to the Liberty. That’s a significant downtick for a team that hits a league-best 38.9% from distance.
"We've shot poorly against this team two games in a row," Aces coach Becky Hammon told reporters after Tuesday’s loss. "You can't beat a team shooting 19 percent when that team is shooting 43 percent. The math doesn't work.
“They keep the pressure on you the entire time. If you've ever played poker, you know applying pressure eventually breaks people, and they eventually fold.”
On the offensive end, New York has buried Las Vegas under a wave of long-range makes. The Liberty are 32-for-73 from the perimeter in those two games with the Aces — a near-43% clip from deep. New York is really clicking over the past month and a half, with a star-studded lineup finding its individual roles within the playbook.
The Liberty have lost only one game in their last 12 outings, boasting a net rating of +13.5 in the regular season contests. They’ve won six straight games heading into tonight, but what’s more important is that New York has covered the spread in four straight games — something this club has struggled with throughout the season. The Liberty were 10-16 ATS before this recent run.
The Over/Under total for tonight’s rematch in Sin City opened at 176.5 points and has slimmed to 176 at some operators as of Thursday morning.
Tuesday’s total opened as low as 174.5 and got to heights of 178 points before closing 177.5. The 82-63 final score played well below that number thanks to a very low-scoring first half in which the teams combined for only 66 points.
New York and Las Vegas have played Under the total in their last two meetings, due to the Aces’ second-half power outages, but did top a closing total of 176 points in their first meeting back in late June, with Vegas winning 98-81.
Liberty vs Aces betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Liberty’s last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.
Liberty vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Thursday, August 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video |
Liberty vs Aces key injuries
Liberty: None.
Aces: Candace Parker (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
