New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Plum Heats Up in the Desert

The rapid growth of the WNBA and the star power of both the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces make tonight’s showdown between these teams not only the biggest game of the 2023 season, but perhaps the biggest game in the history of the league.

Ever since New York added a ton of top-tier talent this offseason, WNBA bettors have been waiting to see how that revamped roster would measure up against the defending champs.

And, according to the WNBA odds, the Liberty are still coming up short — at least in terms of the point spread. Las Vegas is around a 7-point home favorite for this massive matchup, which tips off in Sin City at 10 p.m. ET.

I dive into the spread and Over/Under total for this potential finals preview and give my best WNBA picks for the Liberty vs. Aces on June 29.

Liberty vs Aces best odds

Liberty vs Aces picks and predictions

If the Las Vegas Aces are going to cover this spread, they’ll need buckets from beyond the arc. And that happens to be one of the few weaknesses of the New York Liberty.

New York’s defense has tightened and loosened in the first chunk of the schedule, but it has allowed foes to fire at 35.6% from distance — including a near 39% clip on the road. That’s the fourth-worst 3-point defense in the land, with those opponents burying more than seven triples per contest.

Las Vegas isn’t shy about letting it fly from deep, but hasn’t had to rely on the 3-ball that much either. When the Aces do decide to launch from long range they make ’em, shooting better than 37% from outside (just behind the Liberty’s league-best 38% mark).

Kelsey Plum is the most active 3-point threat for Vegas and her scoring prop for Thursday night sits at 17.5 Over/Under (Over -110). Plum attempts almost six triples per outing — upping that to nearly seven shots from distance in home games — and is averaging 18.4 points inside Michelob Ultra Arena in 2023.

Plum’s player projections sit around 20 points, which is a bar she’s surpassed in three of her last four games. Given her forecasted scoring for tonight, the Over 17.5 points should be priced more in the -160 range.

Plum is averaging just Over 17 points on the season but has really picked up her output in recent weeks. She’s putting up almost 21 points per outing over the last five games, shooting 55.6% from the field while connecting on better than 48% of her 3-point attempts. That's a significant uptick from an average of just 15 points on 41% shooting (24.5% from 3-point) in the opening nine games.

Granted, that recent output came against some weaker foes, but Plum played limited minutes in some of those one-sided wins and still put up big numbers. She’s slated for major minutes (projected for 33) in this massive matchup with the Aces’ top competition tonight.

The Liberty also have to crack an elite Vegas defense that can quickly flip mistakes into transition buckets. New York has gotten itself in trouble with turnovers before, coughing up the ball 14.6 times per game which has translated into almost 16 points off turnovers allowed.

Vegas plays a breakneck pace (No. 3 fastest) that boasts almost 17 points off its foe's errors per game, with Plum among the team leaders in fastbreak scoring and cashing in points off turnovers. She’s also done a great job of drawing contact and picking up easy points at the stripe, going a perfect 16 of 16 from the foul line the last three games.

My best bet: Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Liberty vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

Want to know how top heavy the WNBA is?

Since the Liberty lured stars Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot to the Big Apple in the offseason, the WNBA Championship odds have viewed the 2023 campaign as a two-horse race. That’s why many books are offering an "Aces/Liberty versus the Field" prop when it comes to the WNBA title — with those two superpowers priced as -450 faves against the other 10 teams in the league (+370).

As for today’s head-to-head battle, early bird spreads at Vegas books had this game listed as big as Aces -8.5 before New York took down its biggest competition in the East — the Connecticut Sun — earlier this week.

Online operators opened as low as Las Vegas -5.5 on Wednesday afternoon and that line quickly shot up to -6.5 in the first few minutes of action. It continued to swell into the evening, where the Aces got as high as -8 before buyback on the Liberty showed up. As of Thursday morning, the market consensus is Vegas -7 but you can get the Aces as low as -6.5 and New York as big as +7.5 if you shop around.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread closer to Las Vegas -4.5 after the Liberty beefed up their metrics over the past two outings.

The Aces were well ahead of other teams for a long time — including New York — but the Liberty have scored huge wins in playoff-like situations, edging Washington at home and then scoring a very impressive victory at Connecticut last time out. While New York has had trouble piecing together a complete 40-minute effort, it is playing at a high level of competition coming into Thursday.

Las Vegas, on the other hand, hasn’t faced the toughest stretch of sked since losing its only game back on June 8. It has decimated some of the weaker clubs in the WNBA and blew some big spreads out of the water in the process. The Aces have taken down bottom-tier teams like Seattle, Minnesota, and Phoenix while also getting past Chicago and Indiana (twice).

Vegas (7-7 ATS) has been the toughest team to rank because of the promise of this star-studded roster. The Aces definitely cruised to start the year and woke up a bit after falling to Connecticut in a tough road spot earlier this month. They beefed up their net rating with blowouts of Seattle, Minnesota, and Phoenix but have we yet to see the Aces at their peak in 2023?

As for the total for Thursday night, it opened at 172 points Wednesday afternoon — a high number but warranted considering these are the Top 2 scoring teams in the league. That total has since climbed to as high as 174.5 points at most books as of the morning.

Las Vegas and New York are No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring average as well as offensive rating and they both sit Top 5 in pace.

The Aces enter this non-conference clash with an 8-6 Over/Under mark on the season, but are 2-5 O/U inside Michelob Ultra Arena where they boast a very stingy defensive rating of 88.9 and give up only 73 average points against. 

The Liberty are 8-5 O/U with a 4-2 O/U record away from Brooklyn. New York’s defense is not to be outdone either, limiting host teams to less than 80 points per road stop while posting a defensive rating of 97.6 as a visitor — third lowest in the league.

Liberty vs Aces betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2 in Aces’ last 11 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.

Liberty vs Aces game info

Liberty vs Aces key injuries

Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Game Time Decision).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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