Best WNBA Player Props Today: Boston Breaks Loose

Prop bet #1: Sunburned Wilson

I took the Under on similar A’ja Wilson odds against the New York Liberty on Saturday and despite Wilson’s historic scoring streak, she finished with just 21 points. For all the same reasons I swerved then, I’m doing so again as the Las Vegas Aces take on the Connecticut Sun.

While the Sun don’t have a rim protector as good as Jonquel Jones (arguably nobody does), they do have an even more physical and disciplined all-around defense. 

Like the Liberty, they’re elite at denying points in the paint, and they also pick all the low-hanging fruit on defense to push the math game in their favor. They allow the fewest or next to fewest in fast break points, points off turnovers, and second-chance points while also rarely fouling.

That means every point A’ja scores will have to come the hard way, bodying up against a fierce one-on-one defender in Alyssa Thomas. Thomas is as strong a defensive matchup for A’ja as there is in the W, and she’s maniacally competitive. She and Brionna Jones will be in Wilson’s jersey for the entire 40 minutes of play.

A'ja Wilson prop: Under 27.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Boston strong

Aliyah Boston is back. The former No. 1 pick and last year’s Rookie of the Year had a less-than-ideal start to the season for the Indiana Fever. Despite many predictions that she and Caitlin Clark would naturally amplify one another’s games, the Fever felt like a team built around maximizing Clark’s style of play to the exclusion of Boston.

But their synergies are starting to shine. Clark’s hitting Boston on the roll much more often and Boston is in turn using Gortat screens to free up Clark on drives to the basket. Each seems keenly aware that maximizing each other's gifts is their path to team success.

The Fever’s grueling schedule to begin the season was no help either. Indiana played 11 games when some other teams had only played six, and that left little time for practice or rest.

With more practice time under their belt, Boston looks like the player who made the All-Star team as a rookie.

Over her last three games, she’s averaged 22.7 points on 64.4% shooting. That includes a game against these very same Atlanta Dream, where she had 27 points and 13 rebounds in her breakout game of the season. 

The Dream are yet to find the right mix in the front court and have been shifting players in and out of the lineup since the middle of last season. Boston is more skilled than any of their options. 

Some books are offering these Aliyah Boston odds at 15.5 and the same level of juice, so getting it at 14.5 is great value.

Aliyah Boston prop: Over 14.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Aces mild

The Aces finally have their point guard back. After suffering a somewhat mysterious injury in last year’s Finals, Chelsea Gray is back in action for the Aces and made her debut on Wednesday against the Seattle Storm. The “Point Gawd” had seven assists in just 16 minutes, and seems poised to step up her minutes and production tonight against the Sun.

Gray’s return to the floor has me eyeing these Jackie Young odds, however. Young is averaging by far a career-best six assists per game, and year-over-year growth on that level isn’t just about personal improvement (though Young has done plenty of that). It’s about context and opportunity.

Young has been the one in charge of running the offense in Gray’s absence but is going to move into an off-ball role now that Gray is back in the fold. That means she’s going to be in more of a scoring posture than a passing one, and her assist totals will begin to taper off. 

It doesn’t hurt that the Sun are one of the W’s slowest-paced teams. Every half-court possession played against them seems to crawl at a snail's pace. Scoring chances all around should be down in this one, and that’s another reason I love the Under at this price.

Jackie Young prop: Under 5.5 assists (-145 at DraftKings)