The 2025 WNBA season is going to be huge.
Not only do we have a league loaded with exciting young superstars, but we also get a brand-new franchise, which has the schedule extended to 44 regular-season games.
My WNBA win total best bets factor in the WNBA odds, a busy free-agent period, and a stellar 2025 draft class, as teams work toward Opening Night on May 16.
(Season win totals do not include the in-season Commissioner's Cup final)
WNBA season win total best bets
Indiana Fever Over 27.5 wins (+100 at DraftKings)
It didn’t take long for the Indiana Fever to build a championship roster around Caitlin Clark, who might just be the best player in the league entering Year 2.
Indiana already had key pieces in Aliyah Boston and Kesley Mitchell, with that trio putting the rest of the league on notice late last summer. Clark, Boston, and Mitchell averaged a combined 60 points in the final 15 games of the season.
The Fever wasted little time fixing their biggest problem from 2024, dropping coach Christie Sides and luring Stephanie White back to her former franchise. They also added some guard depth and much-needed attitude, acquiring Sophie Cunningham in a trade.
From there, the free agent dominoes started to fall, with veterans Dewanna Bonner and Natasha Howard giving the frontcourt punch and bringing a surplus of veteran leadership to the locker room.
I have the Fever projected for at least 32 wins in the new 44-game format.
Connecticut Sun Under 16.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
The Under 16.5 wins from the Connecticut Sun opened at -110 and is now as expensive as -130 at some books. Even that adjusted vig looks like a deal considering Connecticut has the worst roster in the league.
The rebuild is underway with many longstanding Sun players finding themselves in new digs this season. The remaining roster is void of any superstar talent. Hell, the Sun’s best player, Marina Mabrey, doesn’t even want to be there after her trade request was denied this winter.
Stephanie White bailed to coach the Fever, leaving Connecticut in the hands of Rachid Meziane, who coached Belgium’s national team and in the French pros at Villeneuve d'Asco. He’ll have a learning curve coming from Europe to the WNBA and is leaning on aging vets and unproven rookies in 2025.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Sun win 10 or fewer games this season.
Seattle Storm Over 20.5 wins (-130 at bet365)
The Western Conference is loaded, with six teams boasting win totals of 20.5 or higher.
Las Vegas is still the team to beat. Minnesota is just as mighty. And Los Angeles, Dallas, and Phoenix look really good on paper. And then there’s the Seattle Storm.
The Storm made waves this offseason by trading franchise player Jewell Loyd in a massive multi-team deal. That takes a lot of offensive punch out of the lineup, but what’s left will be the top defensive team in the entire league.
Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike are tremendous two-way talents protecting the perimeter, along with the emerging Gabby Williams. The interior defense could be elite with 6-foot-4 Ezi Magbegor and 6-foot-6 No. 2 overall pick Dominique Malonga patrolling the paint.
There were five WNBA teams with an advanced defensive rating below 100.0 last season, and they all won at least 25 games. Seattle will have a sub-100 defensive rating in 2025.
Golden State Valkyries Under 15.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
As mentioned above, the West is the best in 2025. That makes for a rough rookie season for the new Golden State Valkyries franchise.
Twenty-four of the Valkyries’ 44 games will come against Las Vegas, Minnesota, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Seattle — all of which are projected to win 20-plus games this year. Golden State also plays defending champ New York four times.
I don’t discount expansion teams as much as I used to. Player grading has made leaps and bounds across all sports, and we often see new franchises punch above their weight.
That said, this Valkyries’ roster is void of star power and could look very different by the time they cut it down to 12 players. First-time head coach Natalie Nakase is looking to hang her hat on defense, which is more of a necessity than a choice, as the Valkyries lack 3-point shooting and size inside.
My projection doesn’t go beyond 11 wins for Golden State, and that feels generous considering the schedule and the gap in talent.
WNBA 2025 season win totals
| Team | Win Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
 New York Liberty |
29.5 | -110 | -110 |
 Las Vegas Aces |
27.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Indiana Fever |
27.5 | -105 | -115 |
 Minnesota Lynx |
26.5 | -130 | +100 |
 Phoenix Mercury |
22.5 | -130 | +100 |
 Dallas Wings |
20.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Seattle Storm |
20.5 | -130 | +100 |
 Los Angeles Sparks |
20.5 | -130 | +100 |
 Atlanta Dream |
20.5 | -130 | +100 |
 Chicago Sky |
19.5 | -115 | -105 |
 Washington Mystics |
18.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Connecticut Sun |
16.5 | +100 | -130 |
| Golden State Valkyries |
15.5 | +100 | -130 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on 4-28
