Seattle Storm vs Washington Mystics Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Storm Subdued in D.C.

There are a pair of games on the WNBA odds board today, beginning with a showdown between the Seattle Storm and Washington Mystics. The Storm have the worst record in the league but get to face a Mystics squad that will be without two-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne until after the All-Star break.

Will that be enough for them to cover the spread tonight as 6-point road underdogs? I let you know with my best free WNBA picks and predictions for Strom vs. Mystics on July 11.

Storm vs Mystics best odds

Storm vs Mystics picks and predictions

These teams clashed twice earlier this year when the Mystics traveled to Seattle for back-to-back road games against the Storm on June 11 and 13. The Mystics won that first meeting 73-66 but failed to cover the massive spread as 12.5-point faves with Seattle missing star guard Jewell Loyd. Loyd returned for that second meeting and the Mystics were actually without Delle Donne but won 71-65 to cover as 3.5-point chalk. 

The Mystics have been a below-average team on offense and rank just eighth in the league in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage (47.9%). They'll be even less efficient on that end of the floor without Delle Donne who leads the squad with 18.2 points per game on 49/39/96 shooting splits. 

The Mystics will also be without center Shakira Austin (11.4 ppg and a team-leading 7.8 rebounds per game) who has missed the last five games with a hip injury. They do have some good news on the injury front with point guard Natasha Cloud (team-high 6.1 assists per game) listed as probable after missing the last two contests.

Despite the absence of Delle Donne and Austin, they'll be happy to face a Seattle team that is third-last in the league in defensive rating. The Storm have been even worse with the ball, ranking last in offensive rating and EFG% (46%). They are expected to have Loyd in the lineup despite her leaving Saturday's game early with an ankle injury. 

Loyd leads the league in scoring with 24.9 ppg but shoots just 38.8% from the floor and center Ezi Magbegor (14.3 ppg) is the only other member of the team to average double digits in points. Even with Loyd active, they'll have a tough time getting buckets against a Mystics team that ranks second in the league in defensive rating and allows a league-low 78.2 ppg. 

The Mystics have an incredible +18.3 net rating during the first half of games but that shockingly drops to a league-worst -12.6 net rating in the second half. That trend has been even more pronounced in contests without Delle Donne who is their go-to option in crunch time.

Against the Storm on June 11, they led by 25 at the half but were outscored 44-25 after halftime. Last week, they held the Wings to 37 points in the first half but allowed them to score 52 during the second frame. And they led 55-40 at half last Friday vs. the Fever but were outscored by seven points in the second half. 

With Seattle having a WNBA-worst net rating of -13.6 in the first 20 minutes, back the home side on the first-half spread. 

My best bet: Mystics -3.5 first half (-110 at bet365)

Storm vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Mystics installed as 6.5-point faves but has shortened slightly to -6. The total has stayed relatively steady at 157.5. 

The Storm are tied for the worst record in the league at 4-14 and are on a five-game losing streak. They have covered the spread just once during that span, although that was in their previous contest when they went to New York and lost by just four points to a very good Liberty team. 

The Mystics are 10-8 and have gone just 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. That said, all of those defeats came on the road, including their most recent contest where they lost 92-84 in Connecticut on Sunday.

The O/U is seeing a relatively low number for these teams. Seattle's road games have seen an average total of 174.1 ppg scored between both teams while Washington's home contests have seen an average of 162.8 ppg. 

The low O/U today is due to the absence of Delle Donne who not only fills up the bucket but does so at an extremely efficient rate and spreads the floor allowing her teammates to get more open looks. 

Storm vs Mystics betting trend to know

The Mystics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mystics.

Storm vs Mystics game info

Storm vs Mystics key injuries

Storm: Jewell Loyd G (Probable).
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out), Natasha Cloud G (Probable), Kristi Toliver G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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