The struggling Los Angeles Sparks will attempt to defy the odds and end their five-game losing streak when they take on the New York Liberty this afternoon.
The Liberty (13-3) are massive favorites in the WNBA odds over the Sparks (4-12), who they defeated 93-80 at the Barclays Center on Thursday.
Although Los Angeles winning the rematch may be a pipe dream, my Sparks vs. Liberty predictions expect Aari McDonald & Co. to provide bettors a safe haven for underdog wagering.
Let's get after it in our WNBA picks for Saturday, June 22.
Sparks vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Sparks +15.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New York Liberty are living up to their billing as one of the WNBA title favorites so far this season. New York is just a half-game behind the Connecticut Sun for the best record in the league, has a +9.0 point differential, and owns the best offensive rating in the WNBA at 107.5.
The reasons for New York’s success are not subtle. The Liberty are loaded with talent, including Breanna Stewart (19.1 points per game), Sabrina Ionescu (18.6 ppg), and Jonquel Jones (17.1 ppg) — any of whom can singlehandedly wreck a game for opponents on the offensive end.
Yet while the Liberty are cruising to wins, they haven’t always hit the mark for bettors. Oddsmakers have made them 10+ point favorites on nine occasions, and New York has covered in just one of those games.
The Los Angeles Sparks saw an already disappointing season take a demoralizing turn on Tuesday when rookie Cameron Brink suffered a torn ACL against Connecticut. Brink had already become a key contributor for Los Angeles, and continued improvement from the former Stanford star might have helped her team stay in the playoff race.
But while Brink was a big help on the defensive end of the Sparks, she wasn’t yet a huge offensive contributor, averaging just 7.5 ppg so far in her rookie campaign. Los Angeles may not have the superstar-laden lineup of the Liberty, but Dearica Hamby (17.7 ppg) and company have already proven they can hang around with New York and other top teams.
We saw that on Thursday, as Los Angeles stayed within seven points at the half before the Liberty final pulled away in the third quarter. The Sparks showed off their depth, playing 10 different players, nine of whom scored in the game. And while New York’s victory was never seriously in doubt, they didn’t cover the 14.5-point spread.
The Sparks are in the midst of a brutal road trip where they’ve played some of the best teams in the WNBA. However, they have already covered against Connecticut and the Minnesota Lynx, not to mention their Thursday meeting with the Liberty. In total, Los Angeles is 5-1 against the spread as a double-digit underdog this year.
New York failed to cover on Thursday, yet the oddsmakers have added a point to the spread. I’m pocketing that extra point and taking Los Angeles to cover again.
Sparks vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Sparks +15.5
Over 168.5
Aari McDonald 12+ points
I expect this game to play out largely like Thursday’s contest, and my same-game parlay is made up of legs that all came in during that game. That means taking the Sparks to cover along with the Over, which these teams comfortably hit in their last meeting.
I’m also taking Aari McDonald to score at least 12 points against the Liberty today. McDonald has been incredibly consistent as of late, scoring between 14 and 16 points in each of her last six games, including 15 against New York on Thursday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sparks vs Liberty odds
Sparks vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Wings vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Sparks vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +13.5 (-105) | New York -13.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +850 | New York -1,600
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
Sparks vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York is just 6-10 against the spread this season, while Los Angeles is 7-8-1 ATS on the year.
- The Liberty are 1-8 ATS this season when entering a game as double-digit favorites.
- The Sparks are playing to an average total of 161.6 this season, compared to 165.0 for the Liberty.
- New York has hit the Over in four of its last five games, while Los Angeles has gone Under in three of its last four.
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Sparks vs Liberty trend
The Sparks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Liberty. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Liberty.
Sparks vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sparks vs Liberty latest injuries
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Cameron Brink F (Out), Azura Stevens F (Out).
Liberty: Nyara Sabally F (Out), Betnijah Laney-Hamilton G (Out), Courtney Vandersloot G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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