The New York Liberty are cruising towards the WNBA’s best record this season, but they’ve got a battle on their hands tonight against the Seattle Storm.
Even so, New York is the clear favorite here — especially after winning in Seattle last Friday — and my Storm vs. Liberty predictions expect an encore of Breanna Stewart's 32-point performance from that meeting. Find out more in my WNBA picks for September 5 ahead.
Storm vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Breanna Stewart Over 22.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s all about bringing a championship to New York this year for Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty, and Stewie has found an extra gear recently. She went past the 25-point mark in four of her eight contests in August, and I like this Over after seeing her torch the Seattle Storm last week.
Though Stewart’s field goal attempts are slightly down compared to 2023, she’s going to get hers in this high-powered New York offense. She’s taken 15+ shots in nine straight and has drilled six of her last 10 three-pointers.
The Liberty haven’t played since Friday, so I’m expecting a ferocious effort from the jump. That could nudge the pace in a favorable direction and play to the strengths of Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot, and Jonquel Jones — all willing passers.
Most of all, I just don’t see Seattle containing Stewart (or Jones) in the paint. Though Ezi Magbegor is developing into a real force in her fifth season in the league, the visitors look undersized and at risk of being steamrolled by mismatches.
If that type of game script unfolds, Stewart should feast again and motor to the Over on this points prop.
Storm vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Breanna Stewart Over 22.5 points
Liberty -7.5
Nneka Ogwumike Under 16.5 points
It’s been one-way traffic in this matchup in recent years. The Liberty have won six straight meetings against the Storm — covering the spread in four of those victories — and I see them adding to this season’s 14-2 home record tonight.
New York is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games against teams with a winning record, and it’s not just the threat of Stewart that has me leaning toward the host. Ionescu is coming off a 25-8-8 stat line in Friday’s win, and the Liberty crushed the Storm on the boards that night by a 45-17 margin.
It’s also worth noting the Storm are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games, with Jewell Loyd in the middle of an erratic scoring stretch.
I weighed up a few different Seattle scorers as candidates for fading points props before landing on Nneka Ogwumike. She fouled out of last week’s matchup and is undersized to compete with Stewart and Jones in the paint, putting her at risk of foul trouble.
Ogwumike is a talented bucket-getter, but she’s had 16 points or fewer in five of her past eight games, and there'll be nothing easy against the length of this New York defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Liberty odds
Storm vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Storm vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Seattle +7.5 (-110) | New York -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seattle +275 | New York -350
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Storm vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Storm have dragged themselves to a 5-5 record in their last 10 outings, but it’s been a grim ATS run. Seattle has only covered the spread once in that span.
- On the flip side, the Liberty are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games and a 7.5-point spread makes sense, even with Seattle boasting dangerous scorers and locked into a playoff spot.
- Everything about this showdown screams Under, which has hit in seven of the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- Despite the Liberty’s slick offense, the Under is 5-1-1 in their prior seven contests at Barclays Center.
Storm vs Liberty trend
The Liberty are 6-2 ATS in their past eight matchups against Western Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Liberty.
Storm vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Storm vs Liberty latest injuries
Storm: Mackenzie Holmes F (Out).
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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