The Seattle Storm wrap up the regular season on the road against the Phoenix Mercury, with both teams locked into their respective playoff seeds and nothing to play for but pride.
Skylar Diggins-Smith has been on a heater offensively, and with Jewell Loyd banged up, my Storm vs Mercury predictions for September 19 expect the former to have another big scoring total.
Read on for WNBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Diggins-Smith’s points prop in the regular-season finale.
Storm vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Skylar Diggins-Smith’s points prop opened at 16.5 points with the Over set at -105. I would have been comfortable taking it there, but the line has fallen to 15.5 points, and I’m pouncing on it with Seattle’s leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, deemed questionable after sitting out back-to-back contests.
Diggins-Smith has hit the Over on this prop in 21 of 39 games on the season, averaging 15.2 points along the way. She’s been on fire as a scorer as of late, which is why this prop is so appealing. Over her last 14, Diggins-Smith has averaged a healthy 18.8 points and hit the Over 11 times, including each of her last four outings.
On the season, Diggins-Smith has averaged 17.4 points on the road compared to 13 points at home, and she’s averaged a whopping 20.4 points across her last eight games away from Seattle. Those home-road splits are tantalizing as the Storm head to the desert, and I’m even more intrigued by Diggins-Smith’s matchup against a Phoenix Mercury team that allows the fourth-most points to opponents on the season.
To make this prop even more compelling, Phoenix has allowed the most made three-pointers this season. Diggins-Smith’s efficiency from beyond the arc has cooled over the last two seasons, but she can still get hot in the right matchup. She’s knocked down at least three triples in three of her last six games, including a matchup with the Mercury on September 7.
The odds have gotten shorter, but I’m taking this line in a hurry at a ludicrous 15.5 points.
Storm vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 15.5 points
Nneka Ogwumike Over 6.5 rebounds
Under 163.5
Nneka Ogwumike has pulled down at least seven rebounds in 20 of 36 games this season, good for 55.6% of her appearances. Her rebounds prop is an excellent addition to our three-leg parlay tonight. She’s averaging 7.6 boards on the season and has hit the Over on this prop in both matchups with the Mercury in 2024. Phoenix has allowed the most rebounds to opponents this season, and this matchup offers Ogwumike a great opportunity to clean the glass with authority.
Neither team has been particularly strong offensively this season, with Seattle ranked fifth in scoring and Phoenix ranked seventh. Seattle has hit the Under in three of its last four on the road, and Phoenix has hit the Under in two of its last five at home. The head-to-head matchup has hit the Under in each of the last four meetings, and with key scoring options out for both teams, I expect this one to hit the Under, especially given the lofty point total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Mercury odds
Storm vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Storm vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -1.5 (-110) | Phoenix +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seattle -120 | Connecticut +100
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110)
Storm vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Storm are 6-4 straight up across their last 10 but just 3-7 ATS in that span.
- The Mercury are 4-6 straight up and just 3-6-1 ATS across their last 10 outings.
- Seattle has hit the Under in five of its last seven overall and three of its last four on the road.
- Phoenix has hit the Over in four of its last five, with the lone Under coming in a blowout loss to Seattle.
Storm vs Mercury trend
These teams have hit the Under in each of the last four head-to-head matchups. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mercury.
Storm vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Prime Video |
Storm vs Mercury latest injuries
Storm: Jewell Loyd (questionable) Ezi Magbegor (out).
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (questionable), Rebecca Allen (out), Charisma Osborne (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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