A two-game slide out of the Olympic break has dropped the Seattle Storm out of the WNBA’s Top 4.
However, they’re 6.5-point favorites tonight against the bottom-feeding Washington Mystics, and my Storm vs. Mystics predictions see the favorites cruising.
Read on to see why my free WNBA picks are backing Seattle.
Storm vs Mystics predictions
My best bet
Storm -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Two straight losses for the Seattle Storm, and the Las Vegas Aces pushed them down to fifth in the standings.
The latest was a 92-75 beating at the hands of the Indiana Fever, who broke open a close game in the fourth quarter, outscoring them 33-17 in the final frame.
Coupled with their previous 83-81 loss to Atlanta, the Storm defense has allowed 87.5 points per game since coming back from the break, an inflated figure from Seattle’s usual stingy defense, which allows 78.3 ppg (fourth).
More points allowed expose Seattle’s true weakness — its inability to hit the 3-ball. The Storm are currently last in the W in 3-point shooting at 29.3%, which played a factor in both losses. The Storm combined to go just 13-for-43 from distance in those Ls, a lowly 30.2% clip.
That might be a problem if scoring goes wild against the Washington Mystics, who hit the triple at a 36.5% rate this season, ranking second in the WNBA.
However, that’s probably the only good thing that we can say about the Mystics right now, as they’ve dropped four straight and sit at 6-21 on the year. They’re allowing a whopping 90.8 points per contest during the current skid, a jump from their usual line of 84.2, which ranks eighth.
Entertainment and Sports Arena has not been kind to them, as Washington owns a league-worst 3-10 home record, including five straight losses, with a minus-10.2-point differential.
These teams haven't played each other since May 19, with the Storm dropping an 84-75 win. It got worse on May 25, as Seattle crushed the Mystics 101-69, the 32-point drubbing counting as the worst defeat hung on Washington this season.
Seattle’s defense is slumping, but if it’s serious for a Top-4 seed, taking both ends of this upcoming home-and-home with the Mystics is a must.
Washington is a respectable 16-10-1 against the spread so far this season, but it hasn’t given much hope for a cover of late, and against a Seattle team that’s desperate for a W, this doesn’t seem like a breakthrough moment.
Storm vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
I’m not sure you could call Jewell Loyd a bright spot in the last game when Seattle lost by 17, and she sported a -19 on the evening.
However, Loyd did lead the Storm in scoring with 26 points on a respectable 9-for-22 from the field. This after dropping 21 on 7-for-19 shooting against the Dream.
She’ll get her third crack at Washington this season, and that 22.5 scoring line is gettable. Loyd dropped 24 in the first meeting. The blowout was the only thing holding her back in the second matchup, as she scored 18 points but took just 13 shots on a light 31 minutes that evening.
Let’s wrap this SGP with the razor-sharp shooting of Stefanie Dolson. The 6-foot-5 center is coming off an incredible 6-for-6 performance from 3-point range against the Lynx, part of a 23-point game.
She’s topped her 1.5 make line in each of the Mystics two games out of the break and went Over that total the last time she played the Storm.
Dolson has gone Over this figure 11 times in her last 17 games and had four other instances where she missed it by one moneyball.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Mystics odds
Storm vs Mystics live odds
Get the latest Storm vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -7 (-107) | Washington +7 (-107)
- Moneyline: Seattle -308 | Washington +258
- Over/Under: Over 162 (-108) | Under 162 (-108)
Storm vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle is 15-12-0 against the spread this season.
- Washington has just two wins in its last 10.
- The Over is 6-4-0 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
- The Mystics have alternated Over/Under results in eight straight games.
Storm vs Mystics trend
Washington is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mystics.
Storm vs Mystics game info
Location: | St. Elizabeths East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC |
Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | Monumental Sports Network, FOX 13, Amazon Prime Video - Seattle |
Storm vs Mystics latest injuries
Storm: None.
Mystics: Shakira Austin C (Probable), DiDi Richards G (Out), Karlie Samuelson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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